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IEA offers a helpful statement on high oil prices

Submitted by julian darley on November 7, 2007 - 10:39pm.

If Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA (International Energy Agency) is dying to get the word out (about you know what) it doesn't really show here:


Statement on the Current Oil Market Situation

The causes behind current high prices are complex. Many are short term, but there are longer term issues as well, including the concentration of demand in the transportation sector, the growing importance of the developing world in oil demand growth - particularly China and India which are the main focus of the World Energy Outlook 2007. Many of these constraints have implications for upstream and downstream development.

Recent data reflect a tightening of oil market fundamentals, in particular the lowering of OECD stock cover. Stocks provide an important cushion between supply and demand - they add supply-side flexibility, reduce volatility and minimize the incentive for speculation. At current prices the market is signaling that stocks need to be higher – something that is in the power of producers to address.
In the longer-term, there is little doubt that both producers and consumers share the responsibility to ensure more investment in supply and greater effort to improve energy efficiency. IEA member countries are committed to improving energy efficiency and to the promotion of alternative energy sources.

Well, that's really going to clarify things for public and policy makers. Thank goodness for the brave analysis of the IEA.

The answer of course is for the major oil producers to turn on the taps:

"At current prices the market is signalling that stocks need
to be higher, something in the power of producers to address,"
IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka.

But is it really in the power of the producers? Apparently only if there is massive investment on their part. For which there is barely any incentive being offered. However there is at least some sense that demand reduction may have some part to play:

"We hope to see [oil prices] coming down. But [they] will not come down
because we hope so," Birol said, adding that producers would need
to pump more oil and consumers curtail demand.

Curtail demand? Odds, balls and barrels, what a thoroughly seditious thought.

 

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