In a sensible effort to try to persuade US presidential candidates to turn some attention to energy policy, a group known as SAFE conducted a kind of policy model called 'Oil ShockWave', in which oil has reached $150 a barrel. As relayed by the New York Times, various unpleasant and militaristic policies ensue. One of the rather important things that the high-level policy team fails to come grips with is whether oil has actually peaked and might be in decline, though someone did come dangerously close:

'Much of the discussion echoed the current debate over the run-up in real-world energy prices. “Is this a short-term spike or a long-term economic reality?” Mr. McCurry asked. No one had an answer.'

How about a long term geological reality?

During some Post Carbon discussions with some electric vehicle builders today, we discussed how much easier the (re-)introduction of low energy transport might be if speed limits could be lowered. By low energy transport we mean both muscle and motor-powered vehicles. The following comments from the policy group are revealing:

'Ms. Browner, as the fictional energy secretary, suggested reimposing the national 55-mile-an-hour speed limit. The political advisers rejected that as an “eat your peas” proposal that would not go over well in Congress or with the public.'

Many people remember that a 55mph limit was once the law in America, in response to the 70s oil shocks. Now it would seem that lowering the speed is not option. Yet lowering speed limits and allowing more lightweight, slower speed Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles and spreading what we call SolarCarShare organisations could dramatically reduce petroleum consumption and make smoother the long transition to a world with declining fossil fuels and eventually no fossil fuels.

But how likely is that when people and policy makers believe that energy limits are just a passing fad:

'Surveying the financial markets, which were plunging as oil prices spiked, Mr. Rubin [playing the role of national security adviser] fell back on a favorite phrase as a top Wall Street executive and government official: “Markets go up and markets go down.” '

It's all just cyclic. We'll either find a lot more oil as prices go up or else we'll find some (even better) substitutes. The only catch is that there is no substitute for cheap energy.