Here is the latest satellite loop of Gustav (and Hannah, and maybe Ike):

Click to go to WUnderground

From KAC/UCF google earth link

Latest updates from Chuck Watson:
(8:35 am 8/29)

Gustav is a bit better organized this morning, and continuing to slowly drift westward, but there are signs the turn to the northwest has started. But the track across the GOM oil/gas lease sites and potential impact on refineries is still very much an open question. We're pretty
sure it will turn north-northwest, and move across western Cuba or the Yucatan straits. The key question is the timing of the interaction with a high pressure system that could cause a sharp left (west) turn is unknown. That will also increase shear and weaken the storm, so it could well be the difference between this being a major disruption and a no-big-deal event depending on when the shear and turn kick in. To repeat myself, we'll know more when Gustav clears the Yucatan straits,
which is looking like tomorrow evening.

(2:05 pm 8/28)

For those who are hanging on every scrap of info they can get, GFDL has shifted west again, towards NOLA and the oil fields, and the storm has zigged a bit right (east) in the latest position fixes, and intensity is probably just below hurricane strength (flight level winds reported at 71 kts, so that translates to just over 60 knots surface). Interaction with Jamaica should keep it from strengthening much this afternoon, but since the island isn't that big and Gustav is only a few knots short of hurricane, it might

Kingston, Jamaica was reporting only 20 knot winds at 2pm, but it's on the back side of the mountains. Montego Bay , further away but on the front side, was reporting 15 knots. The balloon at 2pm got good data (attached), and winds weren't all that high even well above the surface,
so it's not exploding in intensity yet.

(11:30a 8/28) Compared to the morning drama, not much changed. Models still consolidating the reformation, and Gustav continues to reorganize. Hard to tell how much of the movement is motion vs. reorganization. As I keep emphasizing, until it gets to Cuba/Yucatan Straits Friday, longer range implications for the GOM fields are not much better than guessing.

(early am 8/28) The reformation of the storm last night to the southwest reshuffled the deck a little with respect to the models, and the big jump in intensity (recon reported 60 knot winds and NHC upped current intensity to 60kts at 715am) is surprising and scary. This is bad in the sense that the track will pass further south from Cuba, which would have kept the storm more disorganized.

HWRF and GFDL have split; HWRF has landfall just west of NOLA (bad for oil), GFDL and the GFS based BAM runs have it hitting near Mobile AL (much better deal for oil; strongest impacts would miss virtually all of the active leases). Some of the UK runs have it going in towards Beaumont - major bad.

I'm voting for the GFDL scenario right now, but as I said yesterday, we really won't have a good picture until this thing clears Cuba and enters the Gulf, and we have a better feel for the timing of the interactions with the incoming system from the west.

From yesterday:

Both GFDL and HWRF (which will replace GFDL) are showing fairly explosive amplification in the mid Gulf. Even the official forecast is now showing damage to the OCS facilities, and GFDL is showing Katrina-like long term disruption. None of the official tracks are onshore yet, but our in-house runs out to 180 hrs are showing hits to refineries and pipelines, as well as knocking SPR off line for a couple weeks as well. Of course, estimates beyond 72 hours are more "possible scenarios" than real forecasts, and a little wobble one way or the other makes a big difference in damage, but Gustav is starting to get scary.

The Gulf of Mexico represents about 25% of overall US production, or represents 10% of US Oil usage. (*Ed. Note - I believe Nat Gas is about 13-14% of US production)

Using the 6Z 27 Aug GFDL run, we are showing some facilities off line until early December. The total loss is 12% of Gulf oil production between now and the end of the year (126 days). Interestingly, NG isn't so much of a hit - only a 5% loss of the remainder of the year's production.

Gustav went south overnight and the center reformed close to Haiti and is expected to be upgraded to hurricane status this morning. Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models.

On current track, which the weather geeks (and I use the term "geek" in kinship...) at http://easternuswx.com and Jeff Masters at WU say is too early to say for sure, but this could do a lot of damage.
Very high SSTs in Caribbean:

UPDATED

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here's a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is.  This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying.  One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP.  Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.

Here is a really good link/map (from "Rod and Reel" no less) of the LA southern coastline showing all of the Submersible and Floater Gulf rigs.

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.

Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

You want a detailed map? Well here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. 

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 14 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

• mbpd= Million of barrels per day
• Gb= Billion of barrels (10⁹)
• Tb= Trillion of barrels (10¹²)
• NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids
• CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate
• NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)
• URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (May)

Data sources for the production numbers:

• Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).
• EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to May 2008) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The all liquid peak is now May 2008 at  86.05 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2008 (5 months) is up from 2007 for all the categories. The peak date  for Crude Oil + Cond. is also May 2008 at 74.48 mbpd (see Table I below).

Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Business as Usual

• EIA's International Energy Outlook 2006, reference case (Table E4, World Oil Production by Region and Country, Reference Case).
• IEA total liquid demand forecast for 2006 and 2007 (Table1.xls).
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 : forecasts for All liquids, CO+NGL and Crude Oil (Table 3.2, p. 94).
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2005 : forecast for All liquids (Table 3.5).
• IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 : forecast for All liquids (Table 2.4).
• A simple demographic model based on the observation that the oil produced per capita has been roughly constant for the last 26 years around 4.4496 barrels/capita/year (Crude Oil + NGL). The world population forecast employed is the UN 2004 Revision Population Database (medium variant).
• CERA forecasts for conventional oil (Crude Oil + Condensate?) and all liquids, believed to be productive capacities (i.e. actual production + spare capacity). The numbers have been derived from Figure 1 in Dave's response to CERA.

Fig 4.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis

• Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (see discussion here).
• The ASPO forecast from April newsletter (#76): I took the production numbers for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and then interpolated the data (spline) for the missing years. I added the previous forecast issued one year and two years ago (newsletter #58 and #46 respectively).
• Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar (Oil Supply Analysis 2006 - 2007): "Between 2006 and 2010 nearly 25 mbpd of new production is expected to come on-stream leading to a production (all liquids) level of 93-94 mbpd (91 mbpd for CO+NGL) in 2010 with the incorporation of a decline rate of 4% over present day production".
• Koppelaar Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 - Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands (November 2005 Edition).
• The WOCAP model from Samsam Bakhtiari (2003). The forecast is for crude oil plus NGL.
• Forecast by Michael Smith (was at the Energy Institute, now works for EnergyFiles) for CO+NGL, the data have been taken from this chart in this presentation (The Future for Global Oil Supply (1641Kb), November 2006.).
• PhD thesis of Frederik Robelius (2007):  Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production. The forecasts (low and high) are derived from this chart.
• Forecast by TOD's contributor Ace, details can be found in this post.

Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting

• Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes forecast (Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak): Logistic curve fit applied on crude oil only (plus condensate) with URR= 2013 Gb and peak date around November 24th, 2005.
• Jean Lahèrrere (2005): Peak oil and other peaks, presentation to the CERN meeting, 2005.
• Jean Lahèrrere (2006): When will oil production decline significantly? European Geosciences Union, Vienna, 2006.
• Logistic curves derived from the application of Hubbert Linearization technique by Stuart Staniford (see this post for details).
• Results of the Loglet analysis.
• The Generalized Bass Model (GBM) proposed by Prof. Renato Guseo, I used his most recent paper (GUSEO, R. et al. (2006). World Oil Depletion Models: Price Effects Compared with Strategic or Technological Interventions ; Technological Forecasting and Social Change, (in press).). The GBM is a beautiful model that has been applied in finance and marketing science (see here for some background). The estimation in Guseo's article was based on BP data from 2004 (CO+NGL).
• The so-called shock model proposed by TOD's poster WebHubbleTelescope . You can find a description of his approach on his blog here as well as a review on TOD. The current estimate was done in 2005 based on BP's data (CO+NGL).
• The Hybrid Shock Model is a variant of the shock model described here. The forecast is based on EIA data (up to 2006) for crude oil + condensate, the ASPO backdated disovery curve and assumes no reserve growth and declining new discoveries.

Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

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Oilwatch - August 2008

Khebab@theoildrum.com

Hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico oil production - supply likely never to reach pre-Katrina levels: CIBC World Markets

With Tropical Storm Gustav bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico and most weather agencies calling for an active hurricane season, American motorists should brace for gasoline to spike to $5 per gallon as storms threaten to shut down oil production in the region, predicts a new report from CIBC World Markets.

The report notes that oil production in the rig-dotted Gulf, which has been seen as America's best hope for greater energy self-sufficiency, will be increasingly threatened by severe storms that continue to grow in frequency and strength in the region.

"Only three years after hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production, an emerging hurricane storm is tracking another potentially lethal swath through America's energy heartland," says Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. "And with both oil and gasoline inventories much lower than when Katrina and Rita hit, the price consequences could be even worse this time. Any replays of the 2005 storm season could see gasoline prices soar to $5 per gallon."

US to continue conserving gas, even as prices fall

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American drivers faced with $4 gasoline have embraced conservation and consumers are unlikely to easily return to their old gas-guzzling ways now that pump prices are retreating from record levels. As U.S. gasoline prices burst above $4 a gallon this summer, U.S. gasoline demand staged its biggest drop in more than a quarter of a century.

But even with gasoline prices falling to their lowest level in 16 weeks to average $3.69 a gallon on Monday, Americans will continue to ride public transportation and buy more fuel-efficient cars.

Why commodity prices are not done rising yet

Many of you were not even born the last time the world discovered a huge elephant oil field. Think about all the elephant fields in the world that you know about. Alaskan oil fields are in decline; Mexican oil fields are in rapid decline; the North Sea is in decline. The UK has been exporting oil for 27 years now. Within the decade, the UK is going to be a major importer of oil again. Indonesia is a member of OPEC. Indonesia is going to get thrown out because they no longer export oil, they are now net importers of oil.

T. Boone Pickens at the DNC

The oil man has a plan. T. Boone Pickens is in Denver this week to pitch the media and politicos on his "Pickens Plan." He says the plan would reduce dependence on foreign oil by developing wind and solar power and switching to natural gas for vehicles. Pickens predicts ten trillion dollars will be spent on foreign oil in the next decade. And he says that's something we can't afford.

Take a listen to this excerpt from a talk Pickens gave to bloggers in the Big Tent.

Oil tycoon Pickens offers pearls of wisdom

HOUSTON (Reuters) - You've seen T. Boone Pickens on "Larry King Live," watched his commercials exalting the "Pickens Plan" to build windmills and listened to him warn of a looming energy crisis.

Now the Texas oil tycoon shares hints at how you can attain a modest measure of his success -- which includes a 68,000-acre ranch teeming with quail and deer and a Gulfstream 550 jet -- and head off an energy crisis while you're at it.

America Does Have Enough Gas, Oil to Meet Our Needs

America has plenty of oil and natural gas to go around - it is just a matter of the getting Congress and the radical environmental lobby out of the way of domestic production. Another misconception often heard is that it will take 10 years before any oil or natural gas makes it to market.

In the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and off the coast of Southern California, where energy infrastructure is currently in place, experts have reported that we could produce oil and natural gas within two years. In areas where infrastructure is not in place it could take upwards of 12 years.

How To Solve Energy Crisis: Blast From Past When Politicians Had Balls

Ford's comprehensive energy policy included:

● more oil drilling

● more use of nuclear power and coal

● forcing Detroit to raise the fuel efficiency of cars

● imposing taxes to assure that the price of gasoline did not fall

● passing a windfall profits tax to assure that the oil companies did not become too rich

The last one is silly (should we put a windfall tax on Google and Microsoft, too?), and high oil prices are doing an excellent job of forcing Detroit to raise fuel efficiency. But diversifying energy sources and taxing gas to encourage conservation and provide price stability are smart.

On the election trail, of course, all John McCain and Barack Obama can talk about it is how to reduce prices at the pump. Let's just hope that even though they can't level with voters about reality, they'll allow reality to dictate their actual energy policies.

As Biomass Power Rises, a Wood-Fired Plant Is Planned in Texas

The city of Austin, Tex., approved plans on Thursday for a huge plant that will burn waste wood to make electricity, the latest sign of rising interest in a long-dormant form of renewable energy.

Energy Conversion Goes Local: Implications for Planners

Problem: Emerging energy technologies ate bringing planners a new set of issues. The supply-oriented framework from engineering economics within which energy planning has ttaditionally been conducted may be useful for siting large refineries, power plants, and transmission corridors, but it is not helpful for mitigating conflicts at the site level, encouraging new technology adoptions, managing the demand for energy, or, especially, coordinating the diverse users of smaller, local energy facilities. Purpose: I provide an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about emerging energy planning tasks. I highlight factors not considered in the traditional model, and introduce terminology for characterizing key characteristics of the changing energy economy.

A Construction Project Bigger Than the U.S. Interstate System

The whole oil and gas infrastructure is a "vast spider web of steel." There are over 335,000 miles of pipelines in the U.S. alone. There are hundreds of refineries in the world, as well as thousands of tank farms, gas stations, and oil and gas wells.

Such infrastructure requires a lot of maintenance, which is not cheap. On the heels of two decades of low oil prices, much of the industry deferred a lot of maintenance. As Simmons says: "The entire value chain is built of steel. Steel begins to corrode the day it is cast."

The risk of failure – of leaks or breakages – is high. "If the world wants to continue using energy, its assets need to be rebuilt. Simple law of nature," Simmons says. "The construction job will rival the combination of building the World War II war machine, the Marshall Plan rebuilding of Europe, and the post-World War II Interstate Highway System."

Obama Ignored Failing Power System in Convention Speech, Says Galvin Electricity Initiative

/PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- In Denver last night, Senator Barack Obama talked about energy as a problem, but did not address a viable solution - modernizing the electric grid. According to Kurt Yeager, energy expert and executive director of the Galvin Electricity Initiative, America's real energy problem is its dependency on an unreliable, inefficient, "ticking time bomb" power system. Like the country's dependency on foreign oil, 21st century Americans are slaves to the whims and weaknesses of an obsolete, 1950s-era power system. Modernizing the grid with smart technology can lower energy costs, achieve energy independence and address climate change.

Hurricanes could push gas to $1.75 per litre, CIBC warns

Canadian motorists should brace for gasoline prices of $1.75 per litre as Tropical Storm Gustav threatens to shut down oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. With weather agencies calling for another active hurricane season, a new report from CIBC World Markets is warning that pump prices could spike if the 2005 storm season that saw Hurricanes Kartrina and Rita is repeated. Gustav is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

Punishing Russia could prove costly

Moscow's position is, if friendship with the West can only be bought by standing idly by and ignoring desperate pleas for help from a kindred, ethically affiliated nation, Russia cannot afford such a friendship. Cold war or not, the time of a politically correct, US-style Russia is now over.

Instead, it is the time of a Russia that has restored the dignity of its elected government offices; a Russia that owes nothing to the world financial institutions, and itself holds near US$100 billion in US agencies' debt; and a Russia that supplies one-third of Europe's total gas. This is a country whose army is, once again, capable of procuring world-class armaments and training soldiers in their proper use.

This Russia is prepared to beef up its military collaboration with China, ensuring comprehensive modernization of the Asian giant's forces. This new Russia has re-established its diplomatic and economic presence world-wide, has friends and partners in both hemispheres, and is capable of influencing geopolitical situations in the areas much further distanced than the neighboring Caucasus.

Russia is fighting a new Cold War with banks and pipelines, not tanks and warplanes

In classical mythology, Georgia was the land where the Argonauts had to harness bulls with bronze hooves to win the Golden Fleece. Modern Georgia is the source of a treasure scarcely less precious: oil and gas from central Asia and the Caspian, piped along the only east-west energy corridor that Russia does not control. But whereas Jason and his comrades triumphed, our quest has ended in humiliating failure.

ScottishPower says 'sorry' for 34% gas bill rise

ScottishPower today became the latest British energy supplier to pile more pressure on shrinking household budgets by increasing gas prices by 34 per cent and electricity bills by 9 per cent.

E.ON to Appeal Over Scottish Wind Farm Rejection

LONDON - E.ON UK is to appeal against a local government refusal to grant planning permission for a wind farm at Auchencorth Moss in Scotland, the German-owned utility said on Thursday.

India's nuclear deal headed for fiasco

NEW DELHI - As the tortuous negotiations for the United States-India nuclear deal enters its final stage, it becomes clear that India seriously underestimated the discomfort and opposition the agreement would arouse in many countries because of the special privileges granted to India, largely on New Delhi's terms.

Australia Approves Uranium Mine Expansion Plan

SYDNEY - Australia, which is looking to sell more uranium overseas to meet growing demand for nuclear power, on Thursday approved a proposal by Heathgate Resources to expand its outback Beverley uranium mine.

The approval, announced by Australia's environment minister Peter Garrett, will allow Heathgate to produce up to 1,500 tonnes of uranium oxide a year.

Papua New Guinea to Improve Power Supply

apua New Guinea will draw up a detailed plan to improve power supply in the country where 90% of the population still has no electricity.

The Japan Special Fund, administered by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is providing a $1.2 million grant for Papua New Guinea to prepare a power sector development project design that will increase supply of reliable and sustainable power at reasonable cost. The government will contribute another $300,000 to the project.

South Africa: Fuel Price to Fall - By Less Than Hoped

BAD news for motorists: petrol prices could fall less than the widely expected R1 a litre if the minerals and energy department decides to channel some of the money towards what is known as the slate account.

The slate account is kept in terms of an agreement between the government and suppliers to determine compensation that is payable by the government to the suppliers, or by the suppliers to the government, in respect of losses suffered or profits gained by the suppliers because of fluctuations in the purchase price of petroleum products.

Nigeria: N-Delta Crisis Has Perilous Implications - Anyaoku

FORMER Commonwealth Secretary-General, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, declared yesterday that the current socio-political situation in the Niger Delta was "a major national crisis with potentially perilous implications that will go beyond our national economy if not properly resolved."

...Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan on his part warned that his administration would not welcome any investor wishing to exploit gas in the state without giving equity shares to the host communities.

Climate fight hit by global slowdown

LONDON (Reuters) - The fight against global warming is in danger of being downgraded on more urgent fears over energy security, heightened by a Russian war with Georgia, and a global economic slowdown.

Added to the mix -- politicians are faced with a rising clamor of complaints from voters over record fuel bills, and racing gas and oil prices have sparked new interest in high-carbon coal as well as cleaner alternatives.

Shift to two peaks will save the planet

WORKING 9 to 5, what a way to make a living - and what a waste of greenhouse gases, says one architect and urban planner.

James Calder, a director at architecture firm Woods Bagot, said Sydney would be greener and more productive if the working day was split in two: a morning shift of 6am to 3pm and an afternoon shift of midday to 9pm.

'Unbreakable' greenhouse gas meets its doom at last

The war on climate change just got a chemical weapon: a way to destroy the carbon-fluorine bonds that make a class of widely used industrial gases so dangerous in the atmosphere.

Russia says will ensure oil to flow to Europe

DUSHANBE/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's energy minister and a top oil company denied on Friday they were preparing to cut oil flows to Europe in response to threatened sanctions, a step Moscow never took even at the height of the Cold War.

As Europe prepared its response to Russia's invasion of neighbouring Georgia, the energy minister said Moscow was doing everything it could to ensure stable oil supplies on its key supply line to Europe, the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline.

Russia will still deliver oil says Germany

Germany believes that Russia will stick to its contracts to deliver oil to Europe despite a threat of sanctions from EU nations, a government spokesman said today.

"We firmly believe that the contracts will be fulfilled," Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm told reporters at a regular government news conference wrote Reuters.

Political Debate on Energy: James Woolsey, former Director of CIA Guests

August 29, 12pm PT / 3pm ET (1 hour)

Barack Obama and John McCain have set forth detailed energy policies and made passionate speeches about America's need for energy independence. Guests:

     ● Jim Woolsey, national security and energy adviser to John McCain, has advocated for plug-in hybrids and biofuels to wean the U.S. off foreign oil.

     ● Bill Becker is executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project and former director of the U.S. Dept. of Energy’s Central Regional Office.

     ● Brian Young is communications director for the College Democrats of New York and president of the Binghamton College Democrats.

     ● Charlie Smith, chairman of the College Republican National Committee, graduated from the University of Denver in 2007.

Venezuela state oil company to hire more truckers

Venezuela's state-run oil company plans to hire 2,000 truckers and mechanics currently employed by private companies that will disappear when the government nationalizes wholesale fuel distribution.

Germany considers creating national gas reserve

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is considering setting up a natural gas reserve to reduce its dependency on imports from Russia, a spokeswoman for the Economy Ministry said on Friday.

Germany relies on Russia for about 44 percent of its gas imports, according to government information, and in recent years Moscow has cut off energy supplies to some of its neighbours on a number of occasions.

Russia remains a Black Sea power

If the struggle in the Caucasus was ever over oil and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) agenda towards Central Asia, the United States suffered a colossal setback this week. Kazakhstan, the Caspian energy powerhouse and a key Central Asian player, has decided to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia over the conflict with Georgia, and Russia's de facto control over two major Black Sea ports has been consolidated.

Toyota's plunge into big pickups veers into a Texas-size ravine

SAN ANTONIO — Until about three weeks ago, workers built pickups by the thousands here at the sprawling Toyota truck factory south of town. No longer.

...Opened with great fanfare only a couple of years ago, the plant halted production on Aug. 8 after demand collapsed for its Tundra full-size pickups, amid sky-high fuel prices and free-falling home values. Production won't restart until at least November.

Vacationers travel roads closer to home to save the summer

"Staycation" may have been the buzzword this summer, but "nearcation" may better describe what travelers did during prime vacation season.

From Minnesota to Maine, many Americans vacationed closer to home rather than staying at home or traveling longer distances.

Grandparents help with back-to-school bill

With prices for food, gasoline and home heating up, parents are more willing to let grandparents help with clothing costs, says Dan Butler, vice president of retail operations at the National Retail Federation.

UK: Should drivers pay more for petrol?

This week a report claimed families in Sussex were paying almost £800 too much in “green taxes”. The Taxpayers’ Alliance called on the Government to cut taxes, especially on the forecourts where soaring petrol prices were crippling drivers financially. Yet should we in fact be paying more for our petrol?

Power Play

For someone who believes that world oil supplies are about to begin an inexorable decline, possibly dragging down civil society in the process, Rob Hopkins is a rather cheery fellow. Hopkins, a 40-year-old doctoral student at Plymouth University in the United Kingdom, is the founder of the Transition movement, which encourages people to wean their neighborhoods, communities, and towns off oil and nudge them onto a path of self-sufficiency in an increasingly energy-scarce world. “The change we have seen over the past hundred years will be nothing compared with what we will see over the next twenty,” he says. But it’s not a dire warning; it’s an adventure. “This is an extraordinary time to be alive. I feel really fortunate to be around—it’s going to be a fascinating time in history.”

Israel: Lessons from Climate Camp

This wide gap between the rhetoric and reality of climate change highlights the difficulty that most governments struggle with in addressing the trade-off between economic growth, climate change and peak oil. The general attitude in most of the developed world - Israel included - is that increases in energy demand are a given. All we need to do is throw enough money at new technologies, and human ingenuity will somehow enable us to carry on with our over-consumption of energy without destroying the conditions for our existence on this planet. However, the reality of climate change and peak oil is that we cannot simply continue with business as usual.

Time for statesmanship, not bluster

Today's world of 'peak oil', the 'war on terror', unprecedented United States budget and trade deficits twinned with an international financial infrastructure tottering from collateralised mortgage crisis reaching across the United States to Europe, the time has surely come for displays of statesmanship, not bluster.

But what is the forum, what is to be the modern day counterpart of post-war Bretton Woods if the United Nations and World Trade Organisation do not fit the bill? And will Brazil, China and India be invited beyond the ante-room to the main banquet hall? Will as some apparently hasty and unthinking pundits suggest Russia be uninvited?

Taking stock of climate change

Climate change, a large externality bearing down on the global economy, worthy of focus because of the basic fiduciary responsibility to understand risk, was followed by ‘peak oil’, also a driver of economic change.

Beyond the literal definition of peak oil, the anticipation or expectation of increased price volatility of energy-related commodities was a part of the thinking.

In his two years as chief investment officer at CalPERS, Russell Reed introduced two additional areas of investment focus. One was commodities, and the other was infrastructure.

Peak oil study essential to Hamilton's aerotropolis future

Developing any future expansion plans for the lands surrounding the Hamilton International Airport shouldn't proceed until the city's peak oil study is completed, says a few members of the liaison committee.

IAEA: No radioactivity from plutonium leak

VIENNA, Austria: The International Atomic Energy Agency says a plutonium leak at its laboratory earlier this month did not contaminate the environment.

The agency says independent analysis of soil, plant and water samples show that no radioactivity was released into the surrounding area during the Aug. 3 incident.

Iran agrees Nigeria nuclear deal

Iran has agreed to share nuclear technology with Nigeria to help it increase its generation of electricity.

A senior Nigerian foreign ministry official, Tijjani Kaura, said the technology was not intended for any military use.

Canada wants more study on polar bear protection

INUVIK, Northwest Territories (Reuters) - Canada, criticized by environmentalists for not adequately protecting polar bears from the effects of climate change, said on Thursday it will take more time to study its next step.

A scientific panel on Thursday released detailed findings of an April review that classified the bear population as a "special concern," but not endangered or threatened with extinction.

Industry groups file lawsuit over polar bear rule

WASHINGTON - Five industry groups have sued the Interior Department over a rule to protect the polar bear that they say unfairly singles out business operations in Alaska for their contribution to global warming.

Groups representing the oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing industries asked a federal judge Wednesday to ensure that laws designed to protect the bear, which was recently designated a threatened species, are not used to block projects that release heat-trapping gases in the state.

Carbon clues to when Greenland was a green land

PARIS (AFP) - Climatologists poring over Greenland's ancient past say global cooling, unleashed by a fall in atmospheric greenhouse gases, caused the vast island to ice over around three million years ago.

In a study released Wednesday, the British research team say that for aeons, Greenland was mostly ice-free and may have hosted grasslands and forests before it became smothered in a thick, glacial crust in a relatively short time.

The ice sheet can only be explained by a decrease in naturally-occurring, heat-trapping carbon gases in the atmosphere, they say.

The Myth of the Tragedy of the Commons
Against all the odds, the world is becoming a happier place
Lessons from Climate Camp
The fastest way to put the brakes on global heating (it's not George Monbiot's)

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A digest of news and commentary from a UK peak oil perspective

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Over the past few months, several users pointed out that the submit button on the comment preview page wasn't working in Internet Explorer. It turns out that the cause is a bug in the comment rating module (you can read more about it here). I upgraded the module, but that seemed to introduce more problems than it solved. So now I've reverted to the comment rating module that has the comment preview bug. To get around the bug, you can copy the text from the comment preview form into a fresh comment window.

While waiting to see how much damage this week's hurricane will do, it is a good time to review recent developments in the world's petroleum and economic situations for their relevance to peak oil.

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A mid-week update on peak oil, including:
- The hurricane and prices

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Although the days are still hot and the sun high in the sky, this summer is coming to an end. The order has gone in for the wood that will help us heat the house this winter, and the students have arrived for a new semester. Which means, a little late as usual, it is time to dust off the lecture notes (which now-a-days come as Powerpoint presentations), and start the annual update.

One of the classes that I teach deals with power, both generation and use, and so I start the semester with a review of where I see that we currently stand as an overview before getting into more mundane details, such as the inner workings of a generator. The spacing of a year between using these particular slides also gives a little perspective on how things have changed, and updating individual slides emphasizes where the most significant changes have been, in my opinion. So let me show you the slides I am adding or changing, and explain, relatively briefly, why.
[break]
The first change has been to alter the slide that used to show the general situation, from the ASPO curve on oil supply that I have used in the past, to that from the Megaprojects analysis, using the August 2008 projection. However, instead of the featured curve from that article, I replaced it with the one that comes near the bottom end of the comments.

In contrast with the earlier curve, Khebab plotted this with a decline rate of 5.2% rather than the 4.5% decline used in the derivation of the main plot, and given the reports of higher decline rates I am no longer comfortable using the lower number. My main reason for the change was to highlight the changing impact of an increase in decline rate, and so I contrasted this with the original predication that came at the top of Khebab's post.

In order to justify my emphasis on the change I had then (in what turned out to be a back-to-the-blackboard moment) to explain the reasons for depletion, and the change in the rate brought about by the increased use of horizontal wells. To show the reality of the change and its impacts I used the example of Cantarell, but just changed the wording on the slide to note that though the field peaked at over 2 mbd in 2004, it is now (again from comments ) below 1 mbd (the July figure was 973,668 barrels/day). The decline curves for the North Sea also emphasise the higher rates, and I added to them this year the plot that Euan made of the coming decline in British fuel supplies.

To explain why there was going to be no salvation from the Middle East I combined another visit to the board (to explain water floods) and then added the aerial plots of wells that JoulesBurn has posted, as a supplement to the section through Abqaiq, as an illustration of my comment that I cannot see production from that area being sustained more than four years from now. The plots show that the most recent wells are concentrated along the crests of the anticlines.

Turning to natural gas, the most promising development of the year has been the increases in production due to the development of the Barnett, Utica, Haynesville and Marcellus shales. It has just been hailed by the NYT as possibly marking the start of a era in energy production. However, after a couple of slides showing their location and the advanced technology being used to get the gas out, I reverted to the pessimism of an earlier post where the very short life of those wells was discussed. (I will save a comment about the Pickens Plan and the projected use of natural gas supply that it calls for until next year.)

There was a short discussion of Barnett shale production, led by DownSouth, last week which led me to the Texas Railroad Commission reports and the transience of some of the well lives is illustrated by production numbers from different fields of the Barnett Shale. I chose the numbers from the Golden Corral field as illustrative for the class.

Pre-2003 . . . . 0
2003 . . . . . . . .13,010 mcf
2004 . . . . . . . . .1,708 mcf
2005 . . . . . . . . .0
2006 . . . . . . . . .129
2007 . . . . . . . . 8,869
2008 . . . . . . . . . .867

With U.S. gas production declining it was then worth adding a couple of pictures from Jerome , first showing the gas pipelines running from Russia into Europe.

And then, following the ongoing situation in Georgia, to show the pipeline map, to which Jerome has also referred.

Putting these two together, allowed me to wax pessimistic about the supplies of fuel from the Central Asian states, such as Turkmenistan and the overall problems of supply for the West as China acquires gas from a pipeline into the region. It also allowed a couple of remarks about the predatory nature of Gazprom and the recent problem that BP has encountered in working in Russia, as emphasis to the likely future of fuel supplies from that part of the world.

The lecture went on to talk about the problems of supply in the face of the growing domestic use by producers (the Export Land Model) and some concerns about the political power shifts that are now underway.

It concluded with some thoughts on possible solutions including some slides on the Oil Sands of Alberta, the heavy oil deposits in the United States and elsewhere, and the potential impacts of other fuels. Although the hydrogen caravan passed through town last week, I saved a comment on that technology to the following lecture in the section related to batteries (which also included pumped storage). The class ended, after repeating comments and slides that have appeared here before on both corn and cellulosic ethanol, with a short discussion on the use of fire underground for either in-situ combustion of coal, or for the THAI process in Alberta. Personal experiences in the difficulties in monitoring and controlling the flame front in such circumstances ended the class on the same pessimistic note as that on which it began.

And yet I had to request a larger classroom, since the additional students overfilled the original (albeit small) room. So perhaps there may be some ray of hope for the future, with the increasing number of students coming into the business - but alas it will take too long to train them and to find the necessary solutions for this to get us out of the problem years that we are now entering. And apropos a comment last year, where 4 students had worked in operations over the summer where they were asked to participate in load shedding, this year there was only one.

Russia may cut off oil flow to the West

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where possible sanctions against Russia are on the agenda.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Summer's End

While waiting to see how much damage this week's hurricane will do, it is a good time to review recent developments in the world's petroleum and economic situations for their relevance to peak oil.

Should it look as if the current hurricane is going to tear up the Gulf oil fields and the coastal refineries, it might not be a bad time to go out and fill your tank for U.S. gasoline stocks are unusually low. Any supply or refining disruptions in the next week or so have a good chance of resulting in spot shortages of gasoline.

These shortages in turn just might lead to the fabled "run of the pumps" in which 230 million drivers rush to their gas stations and start topping off tanks. In a matter of hours millions and millions of gallons would be transferred into consumer's tanks and it likely would take weeks to sort out the ensuing mess. At a minimum it would give those people running for President or Congress in November something to talk about. If it happens, it will be fascinating to watch.

Bering Glacier Melting Faster Than Scientists Thought

HOUGHTON, MI - A new system of measuring water melt shows that the Bering Glacier--the largest glacier in North America--is melting at double the rate that scientists thought. The glacier is releasing approximately 30 cubic kilometers of water a year, more than twice the amount of water in the entire Colorado River, said Robert Shuchman, co-director of the Michigan Tech Research Institute (MTRI).

"This could potentially change the circulation of coastal currents in the Gulf of Alaska," Shuchman said. Those currents are key factors in tempering climate, redistributing nutrients in the water and providing adequate food for the salmon and marine animals, he explained.

As glaciers melt, sea levels rise, and "sea level rise affects everyone," Shuchman added. "If it continues to rise at this rate, parts of the state of Florida could be under water at the turn of the next century."

Georgia crisis could thwart EU project to bypass Russia for natural gas

BERLIN: The crisis in Georgia could be the final blow for the Nabucco natural gas pipeline across the Caucasus - an €8 billion project backed by the European Union - dealing a serious defeat to the Continent's efforts to wean itself from Russian energy.

With Georgia still in turmoil and Russia's recognition of the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, analysts said investors and creditors of the $11.8 billion project would be even more wary of putting their money into a project already running behind schedule. The pipeline is designed to skirt Russia and deliver natural gas from Azerbaijan directly to Europe, stretching over 3,000 kilometers, or about 1,800 miles, from Turkey's borders with Georgia or Iran to Austria.

"Who is going to finance the Nabucco project now, let alone supply it with the gas it needs?" said Borut Grgic, director of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Ljubljana, Slovenia. "Nabucco is all but dead."

Brazil: A funny kind of reward

Yet just as Petrobras has struck a bonanza, Brazil’s government is debating whether to create a new, wholly state-owned, oil company to maximise its profit from the new fields. This echoes a campaign in the 1940s that led to the creation of Petrobras in the first place, under the slogan “the oil is ours”. But much of Petrobras’s new stature and success comes from the decision of a previous government to float 60% of its shares on the stockmarket and to open up the oil industry, allowing foreign firms in as partners and competitors.

As food prices soar, Brazil and Argentina react in opposite ways

da Silva's government recently announced record farm credits, a form of indirect subsidy, to encourage Brazil's farmers to produce more while the price of their exports are high on world markets, a move that should improve Brazil's economy. But Argentina, Brazil's economic and political archrival, decided to share the agricultural windfall at home.

Worried about the wave of inflation rippling around the world, the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina increased export taxes on some crops, a move meant to keep down domestic food prices by encouraging farmers flush from global profits to sell more at home.

Investment banks see opportunities in crumbling roads and bridges

NEW YORK: Cleaning up roadkill and maintaining runways may not sound like cutting-edge investments. But banks and funds with big money seem to think so.

Reeling from more exotic investments that imploded during the credit crisis, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Carlyle Group, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the investors who have amassed an estimated $250 billion to finance a wave of infrastructure projects in the United States and overseas.

China has head start over West for Iraq oil

DUBAI (Reuters) - China crossed the line first in the race for big oil contracts in post-Saddam Iraq and has gained a head start over Western oil majors in the competition for future energy deals.

China's biggest oil company, state-run CNPC, agreed a $3 billion service contract with Iraq on Wednesday.

The deal could set a precedent for terms that fall far short of the lucrative contracts the oil majors had hoped for as they jostled for access to the world's third largest oil reserves.

Starved of investment since the Gulf War of 1990-1991 and the subsequent U.S.-led invasion of 2003 that removed former President Saddam Hussein, Iraq holds some of the world's last large, cheap, untapped oil reservoirs.

"The biggest significance of this deal is that CNPC will benefit as the first international oil company to be developing one of the giant discovered oil fields in Iraq in the new era," said Alex Munton, analyst at global consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Northeast and Northwest Passages Both Free of Ice

For the first time ever, both the Northwest and the Northeast Passages are free of ice. Shipping companies have been waiting for this moment for years, but they will have to wait a little while longer before they can make use of the Arctic shortcut.

Bayer on defensive in bee deaths

Bayer CropScience is facing scrutiny because of the effect one of its best-selling pesticides has had on honeybees.

A German prosecutor is investigating Werner Wenning, Bayer's chairman, and Friedrich Berschauer, the head of Bayer CropScience, after critics alleged that they knowingly polluted the environment.

Some fuel terminals have short-term outages

BISMARCK, N.D. - Industry officials say they are mystified by fuel shortages at terminals in the Upper Midwest in recent days, but they expect enough supplies for the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Terminals have run out of fuel in West Fargo and Grand Forks in North Dakota; Alexandria, Minn.; and Sioux Falls, S.D.

Officials are trying to figure out why.

Lester R. Brown: Raising Water Productivity

With water shortages emerging as a constraint on food production growth, the world needs an effort to raise water productivity similar to the one that nearly tripled land productivity during the last half of the twentieth century. Worldwide, average irrigation water productivity is now roughly 1 kilogram of grain per ton of water used. Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain, it is not surprising that 70 percent of world water use is devoted to irrigation. Thus, raising irrigation efficiency is central to raising water productivity overall.

Brazil's debate over new oil wealth heats up

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilians have long joked that Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be. But since massive oil reserves were found off its coast last year, many feel the future may have finally arrived.

From the halls of Congress in Brasilia to the bars of Sao Paulo, Brazilians are fiercely debating what to do with the newfound oil wealth. Newspapers are running cover stories and editorials on the issue almost daily, drawing parallels to a "The Oil is Ours" campaign that led to the creation of state petroleum company Petrobras in the 1950s.

Russian oil and gas export interruptions

LONDON (Reuters) - Russia has cut oil and gas supplies to neighbors and indirectly to onward customers in recent years.

The following is a list of some supply interruptions and the reasons offered for them.

Natural gas cars: Clean, green, going nowhere

The GX is the only production car available in the United States that runs on compressed natural gas, or CNG, and is sold only in New York and California, the two states where there are enough refueling stations. The Big Three U.S. automakers ceased making such vehicles a few years ago.

The limited availability of fueling stations and the car’s restricted range are other drawbacks.

High gas prices ground Diddy’s private plane: Rap impresario forced to fly ... gasp! ... commercial!

NEW YORK - Even Diddy’s complaining about high prices at the pump. The rap mogul took to his YouTube video blog to rant about the rising cost of gas, which he says has grounded his private jet.

Level with us: America needs a stiff dose of the truth

You don't get elected president, or dog catcher, in America by suggesting that citizens change their profligate lifestyles. America is all about excess and consumption, forever and ever. The fantasy that keeps us going is that by the time the oil runs out we will have made a smooth transition to "alternative energy" sources. And everything else will remain exactly as it is. Each house will still have two or more cars (fueled by Dumpster scum or sunflower seeds), all our myriad machines will still run on electricity, things we no longer want (after being used for minutes, days or weeks) can be dumped in the landfill or "recycled," and the climate will go back to being "normal." Conventional wisdom says it is political suicide to tell voters the truth — that is, that everything in the above paragraph is a delusion. However, as Orwell said, "If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they don't want to hear." And to keep what is not pleasant to hear, but truthful, from people is suicide of a different sort.

Obama and Biden, McCain and Romney (or whomever) have yet to address the substantive issues facing the nation down the road environmentally and economically. The truth is that we are collectively walking headlong into a hurricane while pretending to be out for a stroll in the park. If the next financial quarter shows an uptick, the nation's designated "experts" will declare that it's back to "business as usual."

Japan military may run out of gas money this year

TOKYO: Japan's military may use up its annual fuel budget months early this year, despite running some ships and planes at low power and cutting back on major exercises.

Faced with fuel costs that exceed spending plans by 60 percent, the Self Defense Force has scaled back training missions involving jets and ships, vehicles are being run at slower speeds, and more passengers are being squeezed in per trip in order to conserve fuel, a Defense Ministry spokeswoman said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

"If fuel prices keep increasing we won't be able to cover it, and we will have to make a request to ensure we have sufficient funds," the spokeswoman said.

She refused to say the fuel shortage would affect Japan's foreign operations, such as dispatches in support of U.S.-led forces in Iraq, but she denied that the country's defense would be compromised.

World’s main energy source likely to change

"We won’t ever run out of oil, just like we never ran out of whales.”

That’s the main message from an expert who has studied change in the world’s primary energy source over time. He understands why gas and oil prices are sky high and explains it’s all just part of the historic cycle needed for a major energy shift.

Jordan to provide Lebanon's electricity

Jordan has expressed readiness to provide Lebanon with 50-70 megawatts of electricity a day to help the country meet a drastic shortfall.

Jordan said on Wednesday it has offered to sell power-starved Lebanon electricity at special prices until the end of 2009, local daily The Jordan Times reports.

Saudi inflation may continue, but at a slower pace

Inflation is a key challenge across the Gulf region, where currencies are pegged to the ailing dollar, as their economies surge on windfall revenues from oil that has been racing to record highs.

Pakistan: Power generation declines due to high cost of oil

MANY power sector experts attribute the alarming rise in outages to either incompetence of power authorities or a deliberate attempt by them to produce less electricity in view of high oil rates.

They have a point as according to WAPDA’s own data, the total installed electricity generation capacity in the country, besides around 350 MW nuclear power plants, is 17,724 MW. The net production after accounting for operational or capacity loses is 16,008 MW.

On an Upstate Wind Turbine Project, Opinions as Varied as the Weather

It’s a long way from the hellish fires in Southern California or the scary drought in the Southeast to the Catskills. But for those contemplating the issues of climate change and the roadway to greener energy, it’s not so far away at all. Whatever role climate change may be playing right now, it’s clear that even something so elemental as the wind is as subject to the vagaries of politics, self-interest and community dynamics as anything else.

“I will say this just once: not in my backyard,” Mr. Many said, when asked to characterize the discord. “People in Delaware County think it ought to be in the Adirondacks. People in the Adirondacks think it should be in the ocean off Massachusetts. Teddy Kennedy thinks it should be somewhere else. Everyone wants alternative energy, but no one wants it where they have to look at it.”

Biofuel buses could hit end of line

Amid concerns over rising fuel costs and the growing worldwide debate over the environmental benefits of biofuels, Toronto's transit agency will consider abandoning the use of biodiesel for its massive bus fleet.

In a meeting tomorrow, the nine city councillors who oversee the Toronto Transit Commission will debate a report that advises the agency to quit using its current fuel, made with 5 per cent soya bean oil, because of "the serious financial issues facing the commission."

McCain Popularity Rises With Gas Prices

As gas prices rose, so did John McCain’s popularity. That’s no coincidence, agreed a panel of environmental thinkers gathered a few blocks away from the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

And, they said, that’s the Democrats fault.

“Average people paying $4 at the pump were saying, ‘OK, what’s the plan?’ and there wasn’t a plan,” said Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., a former two-term governor.

Republican candidate McCain had a plan: “Drill here, drill now.” Democrats scoffed at that, but their plans seemed poised to raise people’s energy bills, the group said.

Excessive loadshedding sparks protests across Peshawar

Protest rallies continued across this provincial metropolis Wednesday as the Peshawar Electric Supply Company (Pesco) failed to ensure an uninterrupted power supply to consumers on the third consecutive day.

The hours-long power shutdowns badly affected the daily life. The electricity breakdowns duration touched over 15 hours in different parts of the city and its suburbs. Complaints of power disruption were received from Hashtnagri, Sethi Town, Garhi Atta Mohammad, Garhi Qamardin, Kohat Road, Dilalazak Road, Saeedabad, Gulberg, Nothia, Lahori Gate, Karimpura and areas close to Ring Road.

The enraged protesters on Wednesday blocked the main GT Road at various points, including Hashtnagri, Gulbahar Chowk, Chamkani, Tarnab Farm and Lala Kalay. The residents of Hazar Khani blocked the Ring Road for over two hours, making the passengers to suffer.

India: Transport union warns of stir over diesel

CHENNAI : The All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) on Wednesday reiterated its demand that the state and central governments set up a high level enquiry commission to go into the reasons behind the increasing diesel scarcity.

It Is Time for the US to Sell Its Highways

It’s difficult to imagine a person not having heard the old axiom “Buy low, sell high”, and it is prudent advice when you are making financial decisions. It’s the second part of that adage that might warrant a look at our strategy for infrastructure improvement in this country. If you are looking to make the maximum amount of money by selling something you want to sell that something when it’s at its highest value. I wonder then, is it time for our government to sell its infrastructure? You know, since the effects of Peak Oil are beginning to make themselves felt, the value of the infrastructure developed to serve cars running on cheap oil will decline each year into the future; starting soon. Selling high might mean selling soon.

Tehran exploits US-Russian tensions

WASHINGTON - Iran could emerge as a big winner, at least in the short term, from the rapidly escalating tensions between the United States and Russia over Moscow's intervention in Georgia, according to analysts here.

Whatever waning chances remained of a US military attack on Iran before President George W Bush leaves office next January have all but vanished, given the still-uncertain outcome of the Georgia crisis, according to most of these observers.

Thistle Creek plan to include some energy efficient homes

Eastman is currently employing some of his energy efficiency ideas to renovate the Electroshield facility on High Street where his company produces building connectors. He has been aware of peak oil issues since his high school days in Yellow Springs in the 1970s, he said. He and Brown built Eastman’s house in the Vale in 1995 with triple paned windows, fluorescent light fixtures, and walls with an R-value of 30, which at that time of cheap fuel seemed to many to be unnecessary, Eastman said. But now that energy costs are rising steeply, even those standards no longer seem unreasonable.

In defence of 'soulless' suburbia

If the latte-loving deep thinkers are right, and all of us plebeians are wrong, why is it that North America's suburbs continue to grow like Topsy? Even in an age of high gas prices?

Perhaps, just perhaps, it's because people actually like to live there. Especially young families who place a high value on safety, proximity to parks and other green space, community sports and other neighbourhood activities.

Climate code red - the case for emergency action

Imagine swiping your smart card to register your carbon ration every time you fuel up at the bowser. Your personal carbon allowance – which gets debited when you pay for carbon-based services or goods – would be granted annually and its value would decline every year. That strict, citizen-account approach to emissions cutting is being advocated by Climate Code Red: The Case for Emergency Action, just published in July.

Co-author Phillip Sutton says, ‘the planet is already too hot. We reached a dangerous level of climate change at least two decades ago and the challenge now is to stop releasing new emissions, pull excess carbon out of the atmosphere and take steps to cool the planet.’

Gustav expected to become a major hurricane

MIAMI -- A strengthening Tropical Storm Gustav jogged to the south on Thursday and was likely to graze southern Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba before nearing the oil fields of the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.

The eventual U.S. landfall of the seventh storm of what experts have predicted will be an unusually busy Atlantic hurricane season also shifted west in the latest model runs. That would take it deeper into the heavy concentration of U.S. oil and natural gas platforms off the Louisiana and Texas coasts.

"An Air Force reconnaissance plane has found a surprise this morning," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. "Gustav has either reformed to the south or been moving more to the south-southwest overnight."

Oil near $120 as Gustav threatens US Gulf

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose towards $120 a barrel on Thursday, its fourth day of gains, boosted by the threat of damage to U.S. oil installations from Tropical Storm Gustav.

The storm is forecast to regain hurricane status as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. crude oil production and 15 percent of its natural gas output.

... "Gustav...is on track to pose a sizeable threat to both upstream and downstream production capacity," Thomas Stenvoll, energy strategist at UBS said in a research note.

"The impact of Gustav on the downstream sector could be felt more acutely - at least in the short term as there is no U.S. government inventory that can be released."

Gustav may hike gas before Labor Day weekend

HOUSTON - The brief respite for consumers at the gasoline pump may come to an abrupt end if Tropical Storm Gustav slams into the petroleum-rich Gulf Coast and its numerous refineries, just as Americans begin packing up cars for the Labor Day weekend.

Venezuela posed to nationalize fuel distribution

Lawmakers loyal to President Hugo Chavez want to allow the nationalization of fuel distribution, the government's latest move to bring Venezuela's economy under increased state control.

Under a bill likely to win initial approval Wednesday, fuel distributors including subsidiaries of British Petroleum, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., would have 60 days to negotiate the sale of their businesses to the government or face expropriation.

China, Iraq reach $3 bln oil service deal

SHANGHAI, China - China and Iraq have signed a $3 billion deal revising an earlier agreement for China's biggest oil company to help develop the Ahdab oil field, an official at the Iraq's Oil Ministry said Thursday.

No more cheap energy, warns cabinet minister John Hutton

John Hutton, the Business Secretary, admits households will struggle to pay their heating bills this winter due to rising costs.

But he effectively rules out imposing a windfall tax on energy firms because it would only lead to higher charges for customers.

And he warns that Russian aggression in Georgia has cast doubt over Britain's future energy supplies.

UK: State profit-plundering won't work

Taxing excess profits to recompense over-charged consumers is a strange way to proceed. Why not ask why are people being over-charged in the first place?

Canada to map resources in Arctic for development

TORONTO (AP) — Canada plans to map energy and mineral resources in its Arctic region in a bid to encourage development and assert its sovereignty in the far north, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Tuesday.

Harper said field workers and specialized aircraft will use state-of-the-art science and technology to search for mineral and energy potential. The information gathered will be used to create geological models and subterranean maps to will help companies find resources.

Arctic sovereignty has moved to the forefront among northern countries as global warming melts Arctic ice and opens new shipping routes and access to untapped, potentially rich resources.

Many remain poor even as Angola reaps oil wealth

LOBITO, Angola (Reuters) - On a recent Friday night, men in SUVs and others on mopeds line up outside one of the few gas stations in Angola's port city of Lobito to fill up for the weekend.

As car horns begin to sound, it becomes clear that the gas pumps have once again run dry.

"We provide millions of barrels of oil each month to China and the United States but don't have enough to fill up our own tanks," said David Boio, a local businessmen, as he stepped down from his truck.

Toyota lowers 2009 global sales target

TOKYO (AP) — Toyota lowered its global sales target for 2009 by 700,000 vehicles to 9.7 million Thursday, showing that even one of the world's most durable automakers is being hurt by rising material costs, a slowing U.S. market and soaring gas prices.

Here's why the stock market is all about oil these days

Q: Why does the price of oil seem to have such a big influence on the stock market?

A: Our nation relies heavily on oil and other fossil fuels. And that is reflected by the stock market.

Miss. coast's post-Katrina recovery not yet complete

According to the Census estimate, Gulfport and Biloxi, the population centers of the coast, have lost more than 13,000 in population between them. Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties have lost about 30,500 people since Katrina, about 8% of their population.

Not coincidentally, the three counties above — Pearl River, Stone and George — have seen their populations increase about 8%.

Bay St. Louis and Waveland, cities that jointly lay claim to the dubious distinction of "ground zero" for Katrina's destructive power, still have the largest population losses. Bay St. Louis lost nearly 20% of its population since the storm and it's almost 15% for Waveland, according to U.S. Census estimates.

UN climate talks make headway on emission limits

ACCRA, Ghana - Talks on a new global warming agreement have begun to resolve some major sticking points, the U.N. climate chief said Wednesday, sounding a promising note after months of sluggish negotiations often marked by confrontation among industrial and developing countries.

Arctic sea ice melts to 2nd-lowest level on record

"We could very well be in that quick slide downward in terms of passing a tipping point," said center senior scientist Mark Serreze. "It's tipping now. We're seeing it happen now."

Within a few years — "five to less than 10 years" — the Arctic could be free of sea ice in the summer, said NASA ice scientist Jay Zwally.

"It also means that climate warming is also coming larger and faster than the models are predicting and nobody's really taken into account that change yet," he said.