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Hope, Human and Wild
Post Carbon Fellow David Fridley's essay from the Post Carbon Reader is quoted in this report on new energy breakthroughs.
From the article:
Those may be extreme examples, but the same problem applies to less controversial energy technologies as well. It’s not that they’re not going to come, and it’s not that their impact won’t be substantial when they do, but we have to remember that with energy we’re talking about massive infrastructure – not lines of code in a software program or new wireless gadgets.We’re moving elephants of steel and concrete, not mice made of plastic and silicon.David Fridley, a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, said in a recent essay that media reports of energy “breakthroughs” often miss this point. I’ve made the mistake myself, not because I don’t realize it, but because these breakthroughs are potentially so important that I want them to become real tomorrow.“In reality, the average time frame between laboratory demonstration of feasibility and full large-scale commercialization is 20 to 25 years,” wrote Fridley.“Processes need to be perfected and optimized, patents developed, demonstration tests performed, pilot plants built and evaluated, environmental impacts assessed, and engineering, design, siting, financing, economic, and other studies undertaken.”This reality isn’t bad news; it’s just not good news in a world that needs to rapidly wean itself from fossil fuels. The good news is that we don’t need breakthrough technologies to start making a meaningful dent today on greenhouse-gas emissions.
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