Post Carbon Fellow David Hughes new report Drill Baby Drill was the subject to this article at the Globe & Mail.
From the article:
Shale gas now accounts for roughly 40 per cent of domestic supply in the U.S. – about 9.7 trillion cubic feet per year. A projection released in December by the Energy Information Administration, a branch of the U.S. government, suggests that fraction will grow to 50 per cent of what the country produces by 2040.
But Dr. Hughes say those projections are too rosy, and fail to take proper account of the fact that most wells fall to 15 per cent of initial productivity after just four to six years. Maintaining supply in the face of such decline will require much more fracking, at the rate of more than 70,000 new wells per year by 2040, to meet the EIA projection. Increased costs and growing concerns about environmental impact could make such a level of development untenable.