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The Peak Oil Crisis: More Reports
Posted Oct 22, 2009 by Tom Whipple
[Excerpt] A new report has been added to the growing list of studies dealing with the issue of when world oil production will peak.
Earlier this month the UK's Energy Research Centre released a 300 page (plus seven detailed technical annexes) study entitled "Global Oil Depletion - An assessment of the evidence for near-term peak in global oil production."
This is clearly the most sophisticated report of any that has been done so far, carefully weighing the evidence for and against an early peak of conventional oil production in 600 pages of detailed annexes. The report benefits from the International Energy Agency's change of heart that occurred with its reevaluation of worldwide depletion rates that was released in November of 2008.
The IEA currently says that while conventional world oil production will peak around 2020, production of alternative fuels such as natural gas liquids and extracts from the Alberta tar sands will increase rapidly enough so that total liquid fuel production can keep growing through 2030. To its credit, the Agency continues to warn that lack of adequate investment and a reviving demand for oil could lead to a supply squeeze within the next two years which of course is a far more realistic position.
The new UKERC's efforts also benefits from the events of 2008 when the current recession started and oil prices spiked to over $140 a barrel and then dove to $30.
A key message of the new study is that whenever the peak of world oil production does come it will likely be too soon for any meaningful mitigation efforts such as increased efficiency or the development of alternative energy sources. It also notes that peak oil will have a major impact on efforts to control global warming...
Originally published October 21, 2009 on Falls Church News-Press
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