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What's in store for the suburbs?
Posted Jul 29, 2008 by Daniel Lerch
Ever since oil surged past $100 a barrel this January I've seen countless articles on the rise in public transit use, the decline of the American car culture and the unknown future of the suburbs. That last one particularly interests me, because metropolitan suburbanization has been by far the biggest land use trend of the post-war period. If that's changing --and it seems like it might be-- then we are all in for a wild ride.
Case in point: This recent article in USA Today talks about how the suburbs are reinventing themselves for $4+ gasoline. As Scott Bernstein of urban sustainability think tank Center for Neighborhood Technology is quoted as saying, "We're sort of stuck with retrofitting the suburbs...That's not all that bad...There's nothing like a crisis to get people to try something."
What really caught my eye, though, was the colorful map of declining home prices from their recent price peak to late 2007. Los Angeles apppears as a peninsula of moderate decline surrounded by an ocean of steep decline. Orlando looks worse, Boston somewhat better. The underlying message is that central cities --the places where you don't need a car to meet your most basic needs-- are becoming more attractive than the newer car-dependent McMansion suburbs that James Howard Kunstler and other have railed against for decades.
This shouldn't come as a surprise -- it's an obvious link, and studies from both the 1970s oil crises and the current oil crisis support it, yet we still managed to overlook it in the decades-long rush to expand the suburbs. Smart local leaders will remember that energy price / land value link as they prepare their communities for the post-peak oil era.
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Image: Prices Dropping Faster Farther From Urban Core, 29 July 2008, USA Today. "In certain metropolitan areas, home prices showed the sharpest drops far from the urban center. Change measured to second half of 2007 from price peak, which varied from second half of 2005 to first half of 2007. Source: Analysis by Fiserv Lending Solutions. USA Today map by Paul Overberg and Dave Merrill.
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5 comments
James Howard Kunstler
From: GarryInNola, Aug 8, 2008 10:56 AM
The author mentioned James Howard Kunstler. I have been following Kunstler by reading his website, books, articles and watching his speeches on the internet and I've learned that he's not always right about everything. His lack of understanding of Islam and the essence of human sexual orientation are dissapointing. Some of his opinions are downright archaic. So when I find out that someone is reading Kunstler I warn them to approach him as a newcomer would an AA meeting. "Take what you can use and leave the rest".
The suburbs of today may
From: Donald Shank, Aug 8, 2008 08:50 AM
The suburbs of today may well become the slums of tomorrow, but there are steps that can mitigate the problem. Densities can be increased through accessory dwelling units (converted garages, "mother-in-law " apartments,etc;) that will increase the viability of neighborhoods for transit. For example, I live in an urban area, but in a WWI era home that has been repurposed, divided into first floor and second apartments and a basement studio.
Another possible asset is that those suburban homes have big lawns, which can be turned into gardens to raise food that requires no transportation inputs.
As suburban densities increase, it becomes economically viable to have local clusters of small businesses, bringing essential daily services and jobs within walking and biking distance, the pattern of traditional neighborhood development that predominated before WWII and the ascendency of the automobile.
Light Rail
From: GarryInNola, Aug 8, 2008 05:59 AM
David, This, however, is all dependent on whether there is actually enough energy to build and maintain light rail in the suburbs. Certainly older, closer-in suburbs will fare better than the outer McMansion suburbs. But the rush to build the suburbs was in large measure encouraged by the Federal Government after World War II through the V A housing program, the F H A program and the Interstate Highsay System. If the impetus had been in the opposite direction we would, more than likely, have a very different country. I think the future for the inner suburbs can be retrofitted with denser, walkable clusters with shopping, employment and housing radiating outward for relatively short distances and served by mass transit. However, I think the outer suburbs have a bleak future except where the climate allows for agriculture of some sort. Smaller and medium sized cities which have been in decline for decades will likely see an influx of people especially if the land outside of these towns is arable. The huge, freeway dependent metro areas of the Sunbelt will largely fail due to their huge unserviceable scale and lack of cheap power for air conditioning. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth and Atlanta will not be popular places without cheap, reliable air conditioning. I think this transition will be far more difficult than you imagine but probably not as radical as James Howard Kunstler expects.
Land Use Planning--Oregon did the right thing in 1973
From: John Andersen, Aug 8, 2008 05:26 AM
And that is why, for instance, Portland is such a great place to live today, and why home prices in the Portland area are holding better than most cities in the United States.
Put an urban growth boundary around cities. This prevents sprawl, and creates the conditions that invite desirable outcomes like transportation choice: bike paths, walking trails, light rail, frequent bus service, etc.
Light Rail
From: David M Miller, Jul 30, 2008 10:44 AM
Clearly this short term reaction (home values) to gas prices will not dramatically change the geographic habitation of the suburban landscape. Existing infrastructure in the suburbs and sociological institutions (utilities, schools etc...)will guarantee their survival and undoubtedly expansion. The latest reports on immigration show more new arrivals are moving into the suburbs rather than the historic intercity (ANDREW BLAUVELT: "Today, the suburbia is the first choice for immigrants, which is vastly different than, say, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, where the city core was the first stopping point for most immigrants." (New Urbanization [the news hour online.PBS]))
With the advent of recent immigrants to the suburbs, whom may be less inclined to want or afford single passenger vehicle transportation, and the increasing carbon awareness of the typicalized suburban culture, the establishment of light rail commuter systems is inevitable and may indeed increase Urban sprawl.