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IEA Sounds the Alarm
Posted Aug 3, 2009 by Richard Heinberg
I recall seeing Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), at the ASPO conference in Berlin in 2004, where he debated the validity of the Peak Oil thesis with veteran petroleum geologist Colin Campbell. Now, in his latest interview , Birol is saying, “...most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago.” Further: “If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely.”
The IEA now sees Peak Oil in 2020 (a decade earlier than it did just a couple of years ago), but thinks that supply shortfalls could come much sooner—perhaps in just a year or two—if demand for oil picks up.
Much of this change of attitude results from a careful study of declining oilfield production rates, discussed in last November’s yearly report. It will be fascinating to see whether this year’s edition raises the alarm level even higher.
Every time the IEA addresses the subject of future world oil supplies, it seems to sound a more pessimistic (realistic?) note. Unfortunately, the evidence is growing that the peak of world oil production is already in the past. So there is a strong likelihood that the IEA has failed in its institutional mission—which is to warn the world’s industrial nations of impending energy supply problems.
Nevertheless, Dr. Birol is at least trying to send the right message: “One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day. The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously.”
Photo: Captain Nandu Chitnis, Gone 2 Sea/flickr
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Reader Comments
7 comments
At the IEA are putting out
From: Jon Tiffany, Oct 26, 2009 09:15 PM
At the IEA are putting out the right message. Birols interview has been picked up by most of the worlds media so the message is going out. The big question is will the masses do anything about it? Will governments act? Probably not :(
If not Birol's statement does it...
From: Tor O, Aug 8, 2009 09:59 PM
...maybe this will:
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1417732...
Dark days ahead
Aug 6th 2009
From The Economist print edition:
A shortage of power-generation capacity could lead to blackouts across Britain—and a dangerous reliance on foreign gas.
Excerpt:
"Britain is running short of power too—so quickly that some economists claim, only just tongue-in-cheek, that the economic slowdown is useful. “A recession is the best demand-reduction policy ever invented,” says Dieter Helm, an energy economist at Oxford University. Many power stations are due to close over the coming decade (see chart 1), and supplies are getting tight. The government reckons that, of a total of around 75GW in generating capacity, 20GW will disappear by 2015."
Greed induces denial
From: jim blake, Aug 7, 2009 03:37 PM
Been there, done that. That's the attitude people had when oil went to $147/Bbl. To them it was just another oil shock that have occurred in the past (1973-4, 1978-9). Of course, it didn't dawn on them the 2008 oil price spike wasn't accompanied by a geopolitical event (embargo, revolution, etc). If they had stopped to think (too much to ask?) they would've realized something more was at work. But, greed induces denial, and anything that obstructs your goal of making money is dismissed. What a surprise people are in for when they find out that price spikes are now part of a continuously increasing oil price.
Peak Oil
From: Harvey Millstone, Aug 7, 2009 03:35 PM
All I want to do is prepare my children for a world with no oil. It's too late to change the minds/attitudes of my generation and significantly alter the path we are on. It's our kids and all the generations after them that are going to pay the price for our short sited and greedy use of fossil fuels.
Abundance
From: James Bromfield, Aug 5, 2009 01:44 PM
Oil is finite, but water is next to infinite. Collapse the hydrogen atom with a microwave, turn it to roaring hot steam to drive generator turbines. Easy. Then down size and add capacitors for homes and cars. No problem. Abundance is everywhere.
The question is, can you implement this during or post collapse? its a tall order, as people seem to want a collapse and don't quite understand how devastating it will be, we won't be the same again.
People act like a frog in hot water
From: Borje Andersson, Aug 5, 2009 04:13 AM
If it gradually gets hotter, the frog sits there and starts to sweat perhaps. It will wait until boiling and then it´s too late. I don´t understand how people can act as if the globe was infinite. And the Peak-oil thing actually opened my eyes to the fact that every resource is finite.
Keep up the good work
I agree Jon. In the 4 years
From: Lance Meredith, Aug 4, 2009 06:07 PM
I agree Jon. In the 4 years our little group has been in the public about Peak Oil and Relocalization we are still a tiny minority. We grew from 5 to about 25 now, maybe one in one thousand people know about peak oil. I've been interviewed on the CBC, spoken to provincial wide conferences of municipal officials, city councillors, been interviewed in the papers and wrote letters to the editor and the message is not getting through. People don't seem to have anything to compare this event to in their experience and therefore block it out as something of concern. Sites like the Post Carbon Institute, the Oil Drum, the Energy Bulletin, etc etc are great sources of information and places to exchange ideas for those of us in the know but they are not reaching the public. Politicians are not proactive (largely) but reactive and the public is not clamouring about this situation as they do not recognize it as something that concerns them, so politicians do nothing. Until the average citizen makes a site like the energy bulletin a bookmark or one of their homepages to visit daily we are voices in the wilderness with little impact on Joe and Jane six pack who are just trying to get by. Understanding the underlaying causes would help them immensely but often (despite Rob Hopkins and the Transition Town movements efforts to reframe Peak) it is too frightening to comtemplate or too absurd to consider real and therefore little is done. Here in Canada we are even further behind on the issue with the only national leader willing to speak openly about Peak Oil denounced by his party and removed from his position of leadership. We are the worst consumers of energy in the world and have no idea the precarious position we are in. There are only a handful of Canadians even speaking in the public forum about peak oil and I know most of them. It is prompting me to seriously consider writing a book on the topic for Canadian towns and cities because the IEA is not mentioned by Canadian papes, maybe a book by one of their own would help spur some discussin.