issues
support pci
The Small-Mart Revolution
Blog Post
Disaster Transitionism
Posted Jun 29, 2009 by Asher Miller
If you haven't read Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, you really should. It's an examination of how the Chicago School of Economics and its adherents have taken advantage of or created crises to further their privatization agendas.
In country after country, free market and pro-corporate devotees have used the chaos, violence, and panic that result from periods of war or economic collapse to rapidly remove price controls, open borders to global trade, and sell off state-owned industry to multinational corporations for a fraction of their true value. In the civic vacuum that ensues when people are dropped down to the lowest levels of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, these proverbial foxes are able to raid the hen house.
Milton Friedman, the guru of free market economics and disaster capitalism, was unabashedly candid about the role of crisis in furthering their agenda:
"Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When the crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable."
After reading it I'm left with one question: How can those of us working to manage the transition to a post-carbon world prevent disaster capitalism and flip it on its head? Call it Disaster Transitionism, if you will.
The first thing I should do is to clarify what I mean by "manage the transition." My position is that we're going to be transitioning, no matter what. In fact, we already are. The peak of global oil production occurred almost exactly a year ago; we're now on the down slope of Hubbert's peak. And many believe that the peak of global economic activity occurred in late 2007/early 2008. So we could be on the down slope of the economic peak, too, if there is such a thing.
The thinking is that even if we do have a few quarters of growth, this growth will still not raise GDP to pre-recession levels. And if demand does again pick up, peak oil will quickly put the kibosh on any meaningful economic growth. The graph above shows what may be the first of a number of steps we'll take down to a much lower level of global economic activity. In other words, a Depression from which we'll never come out.
This may well be a slow-motion crash, but we should be concerned that Friedman's rules of crisis opportunity management still apply. I fear that as governments are overwhelmed with insufficient resources (due to lower tax revenues) and growing crises, as unemployment balloons and crime increases, and as we experience price spikes and shortages of basic commodities like food and, well, shoes, people around the world will be struggling to get by and clamoring for answers. What those answers will be, and who will be in a position to provide them, is of profound importance.
Are disaster capitalists and other special interest groups (xenophobes, military contractors, etc.) planning for these crises right now? Shouldn't we?
I'm deeply concerned about the risk of us jumping at dangerous "solutions" (for example, "clean coal") that not only fail to fix the problems but manage to exacerbate them. And, as Michael Klare (author of Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict) details, global conflicts could easily cascade.
As resources and wealth shrink, and climate change is unleashed, we could well see a growing social justice crisis that makes our current, already deep gap between rich and poor look like a small scrape.
In The Shock Doctrine, Klein quotes John Robb —a former covert-action mission commander with Delta Force and a now management consultant— painting a picture of a future that looks a lot like Apartheid South Africa:
"Wealthy individuals and multinational corporations will be the first to bail out of our collective system, opting instead to hire private military companies, such as Blackwater and Triple Canopy, to protect their homes and facilities and establish a protective perimeter around daily life... That elite world is already largely in place, but Robb predicts that the middle class will soon follow suit, "forming suburban collectives to share the costs of security." These "'armored suburbs'" will deploy and maintain backup generators and communications links" and be patrolled by private militias "that have received corporate training and boast their own state-of-the-art emergency-response systems."
I don't know about you, but I'm not interested in living in that kind of world.
So what do we do? Well, to be over-simplistic, two things:
First, let's flip disaster capitalism on its head and use Friedman's words below as our own mantra.
"Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When the crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable."
That means spreading the word and work as quickly as possible. We need to be developing model projects (food and energy production, thriving local economies, post carbon training/reskilling, new jobs, etc.) that can be quickly replicated. And we need to provide support and coaching for individuals to prepare their own families. The more experimentation, the better. And the more communication between individuals and communities, the better. The good news is that this is beginning to happen, on both fronts.
It also means that we need to emphasize the first "step" in the Transition Town process: awareness building. We need to seed as many communities as possible. Personally, I think the most important work of national and regional Transition networks is to plant as many Transition Towns as possible.
And Transition Town initiators should be careful about skipping over step #1. It's great if you find an excited, committed group of folks who are ready to start working groups and get projects going. By all means, do that! But it's not just about having enough people to move the Energy Descent Action Plan process forward.
We need ambassadors to spur a meaningful level of awareness in the community—most especially among elected officials and key influencers—so that ours are "the ideas that are lying around." Even if they try to ignore you at first or roll their eyes when you walk away, make sure they know you're there. Make sure they remember you so that when events lead them somewhere, they are led to you.
Second, we need to infuse our efforts with a deep commitment to equity and social justice. The only way we're going to get through this transition is by working together. And I'm not talking about token gestures here: I mean, working extra hard to reach out to those in the community who have suffered most from social injustice and who will be most likely to suffer it in times of crisis. To do this, we must be prepared to ask questions, to learn, and to create room for diverse experiences and perspectives to "own" and influence our work for the future.
The stakes couldn't be higher. All the cards are up in the air right now. So, together, let's make sure the ones we want land right side up.
what is pci?
share your story
Reader Comments
9 comments
The logic of the system
From: jason dow, Dec 29, 2009 02:44 PM
I have used this quote before but it is apt for this article: If a factory is torn down but the rationality which produced it is left standing, then that rationality will produce another factory. If a revolution destroys a government,but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves... There is so much talk about the system. And so little understanding. Robert Pirsig
I agree without a shift in consciousness the likelyhood of the type of world imagined in this article will come about....
But where do we apply the most work? I believe it is in our own heart- to embrace simplicity and peace at the root of our beings so that all the actions we take have embedded within them peace, harmony, and the values we want to see manifest in the world.
I really do not believe the solutions lie out there... they lie within our own hearts- by accepting the temporary nature of existence and letting go our fear of death and embracing life!!
All we have to fear is fear itself! If we fear the barbarians at the gate then we will die, if we let the barbarians in we die, but how is this different from any other day??? Death will come for all of us, it is how we choose to live that is difficult.
cheers
"just do it"
From: Veronica Shelford, Dec 28, 2009 07:51 AM
While it is certainly good if you can gather like-minded people around you and brain-storm, it seems to me that the first and most important step is to do some of these things yourself. Move toward energy self-sufficiency, food growing or setting up collectives for buying in bulk, re-skilling ourselves first. Then, if and when things do break down, there's a handy example of how to cope, right there.
disaster planning is already happening
From: John Bollig , Nov 20, 2009 01:13 PM
The question is however,how long can they hold out against the barbarians at the gates. Not long, I think because these armored suburbs have to get food and water from somewhere. I think that a siege mentality just won't work in the long run. Many pandemic flu groups have planned their own bunkers and it will only work for a short time.
Ambassadors to raise awareness
From: Anonymous, Sep 18, 2009 05:31 AM
Hi Asher
...and thank you for giving me the idea.
I will be presenting on Transition at a meeting in Mulhouse France, next week called by The Council of Europe and Mulhouse city to discuss a new project they launched called Territories of Co-responsibility.
They know virtually nothing about Transition and I've now decided to ellect myself ,democratically, of course, as a Transition Ambassador to make the Council of Europe 'take on' Transition in a big way.
And I will persist , hanging on to their trouser legs ,like a true Scottish terrier, for as long as it takes.
I live in Scotland and am involved in a local group here but my heart is French and I want to see transition blossom in France...very slow sofar...
Thank you again.
I hope you get to read this sometime.
Kind regards
Ambassador Danielle Grunberg
Never waste a good crisis
From: Brian M, Jul 7, 2009 08:22 AM
I agree with the basic idea of not wasting a good crisis, a paraphrasing of Friedman's comment. In your article, you say
In the civic vacuum that ensues when people are dropped down to the lowest levels of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, these proverbial foxes are able to raid the hen house.
This is interesting. The thing is, during a true crisis, people tend to be heavily focused on the lower levels of Maslow's pyramid. They want security. Personal security, food security, water security. The plans that the "foxes" offer, provide the promise of security, often in the false promise of either a return to better days or the chance to match someone else's current lot.
It seems to me that the transition town movement has not, to this point in time, addressed this basic issue in the context of crisis rather than preparation. It seems (and I am no expert and could easily be mistaken) that the movement has been focused on preparation to minimize the impact of the crisis. Obviously, that is ideal. However, one could argue that if everyone agrees to change their behavior to a lower standard of living and focus on a (hopefully) higher quality of life, then it isn't so much a crisis as a crisis avoided (which would be nice... ).
Since that won't happen, even in the best of imagined scenarios, many people will not be prepared and there will come points of crisis. How, in the midst of these crisis, will the transition movement be prepared to reach out and provide answers to the questions that matter... How are we going to get food and water? Where are we going to live? How are we going to survive and stay safe? How am I going to earn a living or provide for my family?
In the context of crisis, these issues may be more complex than planned localization of food and resources over time. However, they represent the core needs that crisis will inevitably lay bare. If the transition movement is to be ready when the next crisis makes the politically impossible possible, then these are the kinds of questions that they will need to answer convincingly. Otherwise, during a crisis, people will follow the promises (however false and foolish) of those who have such answers.
Brian
Awareness Building
From: Jean Schanen, Jul 5, 2009 02:16 PM
Yes, Awareness Building is crucial, but how do we turn this into specific action in our home communities where the typical intelligent well meaning person is not familiar with the term "Peak Oil"?
I bullied my book club into including Peak Everything on our book list for the year, and I have a couple of months before my turn comes up to plan to make this opportunity most productive of future action.
The book club is associated with my church, which, by its most fundamental principles ought to stand in the forefront of actions to accomplish successful transition, so if I can crack this initial problem of how to nudge them off the Denial(!) refuge, we could create a powerful and dynamic transition initiative.
Write me another article, please, and tell me how, in detail, to build awareness. So far, in private conversations, I'm not making much progress.
Beyond Non-Profits: Towards A Flow Economy
From: Matt Holbert, Jul 2, 2009 11:03 AM
It's time to utilize mindful capital for acquiring resources. The Transition Town movement is not comprehensive enough to capture capital. We have to be creative and come up with something that is completely outside the box. So far, progressives have been unwilling to consider anything other than tired models. Let's come up with a model that can get all of us out from behind desks and into the garden.
Yes!
From: LenGould, Jun 30, 2009 12:55 PM
Exactly. We need to make sure that concepts of social justice and peace trump the neo-(lib/con) "Wealthy individuals and multinational corporations will be the first to bail out of our collective system" stupidity. I can't believe it. Ask an of them and they'll claim to be followers of the philosophy of the new testament books, but then they act completely opposite.