Right now, the world is producing between 86 and 87 million barrels per day (mbpd) of "all liquids," and that rate has changed little since 2005. Crude oil production has been stalled at roughly 74 mbpd. The rest of the "oil" counted in the "all liquids" numbers includes natural gas liquids, tar sand production, biofuels, and refining gains, and it is these alternative liquids that have been responsible for nearly all of the growth in world oil production for the last several years.

The world has reached a bumpy production plateau, as shown in the following chart:

After a serious review of the flow rates of the world’s oil producers, we conclude that world production is unlikely to ever exceed 90 mbpd, and in fact, might not increase more than 1 or 2 million barrels above where it now stands. It appears we are now on the peak oil plateau, or close enough to it that the date of the technical, absolute peak doesn’t matter.

As ASPO founder Colin Campbell has said, "Arguing endlessly over the precise date of the peak also rather misses the point, when what matters is the vision of the long slope that comes into sight on the other side of it."

Within the next three to six years, the world will likely reach the end of the peak oil plateau and go into terminal oil production decline.

At that point a growing world population will be forced to live with an ever-decreasing supply of oil. Many of the adaptation strategies we are counting on, like increasing the share of renewable energy and replacing the vehicle fleet with more efficient vehicles, will require decades and enormous investment to make much difference.

Unfortunately the world no longer has decades to make the necessary changes. Not only are we "close enough" to the peak, we’re far too close to it.