Depletion is relentless.
Depletion is another frequently misunderstood issue.
As discussed above, all oil fields peak and go into decline. The depletion rates after the peak can vary widely, from about 2% per year for a well-managed onshore field, to 20% or more per year for deepwater fields like Mexico’s Cantarell field, and other deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico. Of the top 21 oil producers in the world, 11 are past their peaks. For a summary table of the world’s top oil producers and their depletion rates, see “Commentary – The Oil Production Story: Pre- and Post-Peak Nations,” Peak Oil Review, June 16, 2008.
The concept is simple: Oil production first must make up for the depletion of mature fields before any net additional oil can be counted. It’s like pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it.
Anyone familiar with a balance sheet should understand this concept, but many observers routinely miss it. World oil production must first struggle against a background decline rate of about 4.5% from mature fields before it can manage any increases. Currently, the net increase in global oil production is about 1% per year.
I would to add one more comment that some fields are prop up with a techqunic call flooding as in Saudia Ghawar field only to add to fears of peak oil.
Peak oil is here already,just look at North Sea were production cost have shot up.
Fields in Australia Bass Strait,Indonesia,Mexico,North sea,Dagaing China are all in decline Saudia Arabia can not
keep up with demand to supply USA let alone world markets.
Fashion has a key to play in oil demand,no females drove
a car in USSR in 1991 i was here i know, now every developing economy has women driving cars.
Just look at the number of plnts being built Russia,China,India just to feed local demand.
USA will have to reduce oil demand by 50 % or suffer
no oil at all for its SUV cars.
George Kashuba Oil & Gas consultant
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