Peak oil deniers often like to point to the International Energy Agency’s estimate of last year, which projected that world oil production will rise from 85 mbpd today to 110 mbpd by 2015, and to 116 mpbd by 2030. Others still quote the IEA’s previous estimate, that world oil production would eventually rise to 130 mbpd.

What they don’t realize is that the IEA’s estimates, along with those of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other analysts, have been continually shrinking for the last several years. After a long history of predicting that oil supply would meet whatever the demand was projected to be, the IEA started to reduce their targets about two years ago, when it became clear that net oil production had stopped growing.

Reality is setting in.

In May 2008, the Wall Street Journal previewed the IEA’s upcoming report on the world's top 400 oil fields, including for the first time a detailed study of their individual depletion rates. The IEA concluded that the depletion of aging oil wells, combined with the dampening effect of skyrocketing costs on new field development, means that the world will have a hard time reaching 100 mbpd within the next two decades. Their projected supply curves are now sharply reduced, while their global demand projections continue to show about a 1.5% annual rate of growth.

Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, said: "One of our findings will be that the oil investments required may be much, much higher than what people assume. This is a dangerous situation."