PROVIDING EDUCATION AND RESOURCES FOR SUSTAINABLE LIVING: COPING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF SEA CHANGES FROM PEAK OIL* AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE* in the DELAWARE VALLEY BIOREGION. THE TIME FOR RELOCALIZATION IS NOW!

"We stand at a critical moment in Earth's history, a time when humanity must choose its future." The Earth Charter

“We have used up all slack in the schedule for actions needed to defuse the global warming time bomb. The next President and Congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation. Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric climate dioxide to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity’s control.”
-James Hansen, Congressional testimony, June 23, 2008


ENERGY USE, WASTE, AND THE ECONOMY

Energy efficiency and conservation remain our quickest, fastest, cheapest way to increase energy supplies. According to Michael Potts, President and CEO of Rocky Mountain Institute, "Between 75% and 90% of the energy we consume is wasted due to bad design and poor choices." As an energy surveyor, and trained auditor, my experience bears that out. Before we hunt for new oil in the remaining unexplored places, where the costs of exploration and extraction are very high, we prudence dictates that we begin reducing demand by eliminating the waste.

Reducing waste will cut greenhouse gas emissions and lower the possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect. A "crash" program to do this would create new, "green" jobs, improve the bottom line for most businesses, and possibly stop our reverse the current economic melt-down.

IF CIVILIZATION IS LIVING IN DENIAL AND IGNORANCE, WILL SEEING BE BELIEVING?

"When the climate changed, were we doing everything we could?" That's the question that 2007 Rowel Award winner, James Balog, NANPA Photographer of the year is asking.

Seeing is believing and Balog has introduced a new web site in cooperation with National Geographic that documents, hour by hour, extraordinary changes in a number of glaciers from around the world.

According to Seth Bauer in National Geographic's new "Green Guide", Balog and "his team set up a series of cameras near glaciers around the world; every hour each one takes a picture. Combine the photos over weeks and months, and there is a devastating visual record of the glaciers' rapid disappearance. Balog isn't just observing with scientific disinterest. First, he's made substantial changes in his own life. Solar panels on the roof of his house. A hybrid car. The most reasonable carbon footprint he can manage for a person who flies as much as he does.

More importantly, he's showing his glacier photographs to as many people as he possibly can (you can see them at extremeicesurvey.org). And then he's asking the critical question, the one which he feels he owes an answer to himself, to his children, and to society at large: When the climate changed, did I do everything I could?"

EPILOG

The price of crude oil has retreated from the $147.27per barrel price we saw on July 11, 2008. Four dollar a gallon gasoline really seemed to get everyone's attention. News items related to energy and the environment exploded in all the media. Here in Warminster, Bucks County our Board of Supervisors seems to be ready to create an Environmental Advisory Council (EAC), a part of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council. The PEC works through partnerships, coalitions and grassroots involvement. Their mission focusses on three centers of excellence; water resources, sustainable communities, energy and climate. It's a perfect match with relocalization. Only ignorance, denial, and petty politics can get in the way of our doing what is needed to prevent the current trends from spinning out of control.

It was my own interest in a series of extraordinary glacier calving in 1987 that catapulted me into the sustainability movement. I learned from scientists I was interviewing that Antarctica was the "wild card" in global climate change. 20 years later, both polar regions have become the front lines in global climate change. 21 years later, changes in the northern hemisphere's cryosphere (frozen regions) are showing signs of collapse, with the potential to trigger rapid sea level rise.

Now that prices are down and dropping the only real question is whether or not consumers will go back to sleep in the hope that the energy price emergency is over. It's likely that policy makers will exert a lot of influence to keep the costs lower than the record prices of this past summer. After all, we're in the last week of a very competitive presidential election cycle. "The era of cheap oil has ended." Now is the time to learn how to simplify our lives and change personal habits that are in keeping with these historic changes.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

It's easy to succumb to feelings of despair if you tell yourself that you are only one 6.5 billionth of the problem, or if you think that big business, China or India are the real culprits. If you live in America, your carbon footprint is probably more than a thousand times larger than many of us who live elsewhere. You can check this out if you want to feel more powerful, and more responsible (Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library).

There's actually a lot you can do. Since most of us who live in the highly developed parts of the world waste more than half of the energy we use we can cut that waste without sacrificing our (suspiciously high) level of comfort. The obstacles are the same as anywhere. If you have the will and the information to do this, only fiscal irresponsibility can get in your way. Because in today's economic climate, none of us can afford to waste anything. Wasting fossil fuels is responsible for more than half of the human contribution to global warming, and making you poorer than anything that the the banking industry or the stock market is doing.

THE THREE PARTS OF ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDINGS

People often approach me at presentations and events and ask how they can get solar photovoltaic electricity on their homes and offices. I often counter by asking them how much electricity they're wasting. My answer really depends on their reaction to my question. Because solar photovoltaic technology is relatively expensive to buy and install, the prudent approach is to make that decision after the building is made energy efficient.

The three parts to my complete answer is that there are three parts to an energy efficient building or house. There is the ENVELOP, or shell that is between the occupants and the weather outside. Then, there are the CONTENTS, or "stuff" that we fill our buildings with. Some of that "stuff" uses energy, like a refrigerator and light bulbs. Then, there are the PRACTICES, or the way we use the stuff. Wasteful practices can defeat the intention of the most energy efficient building in the world. Practices like doors and windows open, and heating (or cooling) on. Or, lights on, nobody home.... I think you get it.

FIRST STEP

The first step? Replace all of your incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent, or LED lamps, and do it today. This one's a no-brainer. If you can't do this you really would do well to rethink your priorities. What we are talking about is nothing less than the fate of humanity and many of whatever favorite critters you hold dear. At this moment in history, not wasting 75% to 90% of the energy you use to light your way trumps any excuse for not doing it. Incandescent lamps are becoming illegal in many places and you can outlaw them in your life. It's an antidote to despair. And lighting is as much as 20% of your energy budget.

THE VALUE of HOME and SMALL BUSINESS ENERGY AUDITS

In much of the Northern Hemisphere fall is a good time to schedule a professional energy audit. If you schedule one now, you may have it completed before winter. Large temperature differences between the inside an outside allow effective use of infra-red thermal scanning to find areas of poor insulation. The blower door test will find the air leaks in almost any season. Be sure to hire an auditor that is certified by a respected national organization like RESNET or BPI. A shortage of trained auditors is beginning to be noticed in this area, in spite of efforts to recruit and train new auditors, so don't put off this valuable energy saving strategy. Home audit costs start around $400 and you'll probably save more than twice as much in the first year after you do it. Global warming doesn't mean we can't have a cold winter, and The Farmer's Almanac has predicted one for this year. As the Philadelphia Phillies won the 2008 World Series in earmuffs, woolen watch caps, and heavy jackets, temperatures in the Delaware Valley were running ten degrees cooler than average.

I always caution do-it-yourselfers to save the energy for doing the work needed for after the audit. The audit is the key to getting the savings and comfort that you want. Even a relatively experienced energy person can make costly mistakes in their home energy upgrade strategy. I'm a trained auditor and made some mistakes before I learned how to do it professionally. Energy efficiency is also about using your own muscle power in the most intelligent way possible. Energy audits are scientifically performed and can identify what you can do for the best savings and how to prioritize the work.

Did you know that roughly 85% of the cost of most buildings is in their operating expenses? The costs of construction are only 15% of what you will pay. A small increase here is worth the expense.

If you plan major renovations finding a certified green architect and builder will allow for approaching and/or achieving the 75% to 90% savings possible, and you will be most delighted with the outcome. If the professionals that you interview balk at this or try to convince you that it would be too costly, it is probably because they are ignorant or inexperienced in doing that work. The biggest impediments to green building is ignorance and inexperience of the building trades, especially on the East coast. You will want to have the performance characteristics of the work guaranteed in writing and tested by an approved auditor when finished, or before and after in some cases.

TRANSPORTATION, HOUSING, FOOD, PEAK OIL and YOUR WALLET

An increasing number of commuters are leaving their cars at the railroad station. (www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23637018/). Public transit use is now up as much as 15% and rising rapidly according to some reports. If you arrive at our local railroad station after the morning rush hour you might not find a place to park your car. News articles on the peak oil and global climate change, once rare, are now everywhere and it takes too much time to clip them. I may have to give it up.

$200 a barrel oil is assuredly coming, and $4 a gallon gasoline seems to have broken through pubic and political denial about peak oil. Of course, we're now free to move into Anger and, for some, into Bargaining. The mood of the public is whipsawing op-ed commentary and political opportunists trying to capitalize on whatever straw-man can be found on which to pin the blame. Again, Pogo is right. ""We have met the enemy and it is us." The effects of more than century of wasting oil are coming home to roost.

U.S.News & World Report's April 28th issue contains a cover story, "Why America Needs an Energy Diet (and So Do You)". Do you think they're kidding? The bottom line for readers is no different from what doctors finally said about smoking. It's your choice. It's your home, bank account, and your personal environment that will benefit from positive action. Every day that you delay limits your choices, drives up your costs, and brings us all closer to the brink.

There are so many articles on peak oil these days that I missed the June 9th issue of Newsweek, with the cover story, "The Coming Oil Wars". It's featured in the current ASPO newsletter (newsletter@aspo-ireland.org), a great place to find peak oil news. You can read this direct at: www.newsweek.com/id/139395. The article is much more about more than oil wars, and presents an interesting overview (considering the source) of why, where, and how the effects of peak oil will increasingly impact us, our families, our businesses, and the world we live in.

Mortgage foreclosures because home energy costs exceeding mortgage payments are becoming more common by the month. (www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime), and of SUV owners abandoning their vehicles for public transit because they can't afford to fill their gas tanks. The city of Philadelphia, which ranked as the number eight city in America for being prepared for peak oil (ref., "Major US City Preparedness for an Oil Crisis" by Warren Karlenzig, President, Common Current: www.commoncurrent.com/publications.shtml) is actively exploring a bicycle share program similar to the wildly successful project in Paris, France to help people move around our narrow, crowded Center City streets.

Boats, the focal point of a favorite pastime of the McMansion set, are being abandoned at a record rate. "After 20 years in the repossession business, Mr Henderson has never been busier" (ref.: Jeff Henderson, the Repo Man featured on the front page of the Business section of the New York Times, May 20, 2008). Virtually every boat at his repo yard seems to be a power boat, which can burn through as much as a thousand dollars for a weekend of fuel.

Vacant housing stocks exceed 2.5%, the highest number since records began to be kept 58 years ago (April 28 (Bloomberg) -- A record 18.6 million U.S. homes stood empty in the first quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure.). The latest danger to vacant housing from both foreclosures and second homes that aren't regularly occupied is that the skyrocketing costs of copper and aluminum invites thieves who strip out wiring and pipes. Churches in the UK are having their copper roofing stripped to a degree that it frequently is mentioned by NPR news.

Farmers, who are thought to be having excellent returns on their labors are "Reaping What They Owe" according to the May 17, 2008 headlines on our local paper, The Intelligencer. Bucks County farms, where we are based, is a farming region and although "food prices may be rising, ...so are the costs of growing it, local farmers say". Last year's fertilizer prices stood at $275 a ton but have risen to more than $735 a ton, a price increase of around 170% in one year. Food prices definitely are rising, according to an AP article "Lean Times", the lead headline of the business section in the following day's paper.

Buying food close to home at a farmer's market, a CSA (Community Supported Agriculture farm), or a farm stand usually supports local farmers and often means healthy organic food. Local farmers are an essential part of any relocalization effort, and we need all of them if we hope to relocalize our communities. Relocalizing keeps more of our money in our community and is important to do in hard times. Eating locally is the best assurance of getting healthy, quality food to eat and keeping our family from hunger.

Peak oil is beginning to explode into public consciousness by way of the popular press with articles like Running on Empty, scheduled for the May 12 issue of the Nation (www.thenation.com/doc/20080512/hertsgaard).

The following is from President Bush's press conference on April 29, 2008:
"You know, we're transitioning to a new era, by the way, a new era where we're going to have batteries in our cars that will power — you know, enable people to drive 40 miles on electricity. There's going to be more ethanol in the market, more alternative fuels. Our driving habits will change.

...on the Saudis, look, I have made the case that, you know, the high price of oil injures economies. But I think we better understand that there's not a lot of excess capacity in this world right now.

You know, hopefully, high prices will spur more exploration to bring excess capacity on. But demand is rising faster than supply. And that's why you're seeing global energy prices rise."

The ECLA PA is shifting from warning of an impending crisis to emphasizing mitigation and coping strategies. The short piece of advice, "Get cracking!". The short message: whatever it is that you plan to do in the near future, NOW is the time to make your home, your business, and your life energy efficient.

Don't guess at how to do it, it's not as easy as it may look. But it's hard to go wrong by starting with a certified energy audit (Check out RESNET or the NEHERS Alliance, Building Performance Institute survey, or USGreenhome.com) to test your home and provide you with a written report with scientific data on best, cost-effective options for saving energy costs and reducing CO2 emissions.

When I first wrote this I said that if you own a vehicle that gets under 30 mpg you should park it or sell it while the selling is good. Unfortunately, if you haven't already sold it you've missed the boat. If you must drive, seek out the best mileage vehicle you can afford and buy it. (OK, you might be able to wait for the Chevy Volt if you must; but don't wait for someone to put a plug-in-hybrid on the market (Nissan seems to be close to that) or a hydrogen fuel-cell car. When you get to work you may have trouble finding a place to plug it in, but we're beginning to work on that.

Although I work locally, my wife drives a hybrid to work, 23 miles away. In the three years that we've owned it we've saved half of our gas costs for commuting, and we can occasionally take a modest trip knowing our fuel savings will be almost triple what our last (non-hybrid) Toyoto Camry provided.

If you are considering moving back to the city or into town, get more serious about it. It won't be long now before almost everyone will want to do it, and prices already reflect that trend. There is still a fairly good selection of properties available. Although the market is still better for buyers the urban markets are beginning to get tight. Our region is sporting a smattering of new net-zero new homes that should begin to be sold at a premium for their builders.

In a report from the recent Findhorn Conference Richard Heinberg made reference to the following report which, although a bit dated (2005), confirms the US DOE's take on peak oil. This, along with the Royal Dutch Shell/MIT report released in February 2008 at Davos, is further confirmation that we are closer to the brink than a survey of daily news reports would suggest. However, oil prices can be taken as a sign of the reports prescience. And three years after the Hirsch report was published no comprehensive mitigation or adaptation plans, as called for in the report, have been put into practice.

Here is a summary of the DOE Report Summary. The full text of the original can be found at: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT February 2005

Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
Roger Bezdek, MISI
Robert Wendling, MISI

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

"Prudent risk management requires the planning and implementation of mitigation well before peaking. Early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive than delayed mitigation. A unique aspect of the world oil peaking problem is that its timing is uncertain, because of inadequate and potentially biased reserves data from elsewhere around the world. In addition, the onset of peaking may be obscured by the volatile nature of oil prices. Since the potential economic impact of peaking is immense and the uncertainties relating to all facets of the problem are large, detailed quantitative studies to address the uncertainties and to explore mitigation strategies are a critical need.

"In summary, the problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. The challenges and uncertainties need to be much better understood. Technologies exist to mitigate the problem. Timely, aggressive risk management will be essential."

WATER

I'm putting in this paragraph on water efficiency so that you won't think I forgot it. It is terribly important, especially where there have been persistent droughts, like in the Southwest US (which is actually desert and in drought by definition), parts of New Jersey and Bucks County. There are several considerations: You will want water-efficient appliances as much as you'll want the most efficient Energy Star appliances you can get. Low-flow shower heads and faucets, dual-flush toilets, efficient dish-washers, and washing machines are extremely important to keeping your energy costs low.

Usually, the most cost-effective solar technology is solar hot water. If you have enough sun on your roof you can do well to install solar hot water. However, if you're living alone, or with one or two cooperative) adults you might consider a demand hot water system. If you have a bathroom or sink that's rarely used you can install one there.


HOW ABOUT A LITTLE PHILOSOPHY, OR THE BIG PICTURE

We stand at a critical moment in Earth's history, a time when humanity must choose its future. As the world becomes increasingly interdependent and fragile, the future at once holds great peril and great promise. To move forward we must recognize that in the midst of a magnificent diversity of cultures and life forms we are one human family and one Earth community with a common destiny. We must join together to bring forth a sustainable global society founded on respect for nature, universal human rights, economic justice, and a culture of peace. Towards this end, it is imperative that we, the peoples of Earth, declare our responsibility to one another, to the greater community of life, and to future generations..........................................................The Earth Charter: Preamble

Albert Einstein is reported to have said, "Since the splitting of the atom everything has changed except our way of thinking, and thus, humanity drifts towards catastrophe. If mankind is to survive it shall require substantially a new way of thinking."

Occasionally, we will be posting a related link that, because of it's content, has inspired new thinking, points of view, or thoughts that are especially relevant and/or inspiring. Here is our first: http://stateoftheunion2008.com/. See also, news item posted: Shell CEO Predicts Oil Shortage Within Seven Years.

The front page headline of the Financial Times of Wednesday, October 29, 2008 says "World will struggle to meet oil demand" The sub-headlines say, "Output falling faster than expected". Without additional investment global output is falling by 9.1% but that with investment it will only fall by 6.4 %. This is not news at the Post Carbon Institute, but having it splashed across the front page of one of the most respected financial newspapers confirms the news. The time to act is now, the way to act is extreme, but that is the only way that is congruent with the data. If you were told that you show symptoms of a heart attack would you say," well, let's not do anything much until we know for sure by waiting for the onset of crushing chest pain and immanent cardiac arrest"?

There was another posting that seemed to evaporate from the site. While we figure out where it went here's one that magically appeared on my computer screen: check out www.climatecodered.net - courtesy of the SustainaBundy relocalization chapter.

* For definitions or to learn more about global climate change go to: www.realclimate.org ("Climate science from real climate scientists"). To learn more about peak oil go to: www.postcarbon.org (the parent organization of the ECLA PA), or do a Google search on the terms.

WHY WE NEED A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE WAY WE THINK
Global climate change (or "warming", as some call it), peak oil, and the global depletion of other resources are very real and serious issues. They are worthy of your attention because they are imposed by nature and will exert their influences whether or not you believe they are real. They have the power to change the way you live. They are already changing your life. For some of us it has already taken our life. There are few left who doubt that the war in Iraq is mainly about oil. The "triple threat" combination of global climate change, peak oil, and global resource depletion have the potential to cause catastrophic changes for all humans beings, and for the biosphere.

For many years this author has been carefully tracking these issues and the once subtle changes that they are causing. When I started my observations there weren't many people who understood the problems let alone noticed how serous they were. Today, the naysayers are members of a rapidly shrinking minority. This bodes well because a lot of people are now beginning to act or already acting with greater resolve. That is necessary. We'll need a lot of people, maybe most of the people, to do the work required to reverse these dangerous trends. There is hope.

As you read this we invite you to consider how you would cope if you woke up and found that the price of all petroleum fuels had risen to more than above $5 a gallon (or the equivalent for natural gas and other fossil fuels). Could you continue to live as you do today? Could you keep your homes and businesses as warm in the winter or as cool and comfortable in the summer? Could you afford to drive to work, travel to visit your parents, children, or friends? Could you still afford to drive to the shore or the mountains for the weekend? When petroleum prices continue to climb, and there is no longer any doubt that they will, will you be able to afford the food that is made with the aid of petroleum products? Will you be able to buy the vast majority of the stuff that you want that is made from, with, or transported to you with petroleum? If your answer is no wouldn't it be prudent to take steps to minimize the negative effects on your life, and your lifestyle?

THE EVIDENCE
The United Nations has been studying climate change for many years. The fourth of the reports they've issued is the most complete and best documentation they've been able to gather. It's conclusions have been reviewed and accepted by all of the many nations whose scientists contributed to it's creation. In that sense it's a somewhat political document. But a careful reading reveals the seriousness of the science and the data that couldn't't be bargained or negotiated into silence or edited out of the document.

The February 2, 2007 and subsequent releases of the several parts of the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC has opened a new chapter in our appreciation of global warming. It's a new chapter in our efforts to bring that process to a halt. As it becomes increasingly obvious that, "the future at once holds great peril and great promise", it may be an entirely new book. Indeed, David Korten holds that if humanity is to survive, it shall also require a new story.

The July 18 Draft Report from the US National Petroleum Council, "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy: A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas", once noticed by more folks than the readers of the Financial Times, will blown the lid off energy awareness. (For the full report go to: www.npc.org.) The Executive Summary is accessed from that page and the first three pages of the Summary are very instructive.
Paragraph two of the Summary is a masterpiece of understatement. "Over the coming decades, the world will need better energy efficiency and all economic, environmentally responsible energy sources available to support and sustain future growth." It can be argued that the goal of sustaining future growth is unsustainable.

The report lists five essential "strategies to deal with the problem: "The United States must: Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses."

When the looming problems associated with peak oil converge on rapidly rising demand from the giants of the developing world (China and India), while simultaneously intersecting with the exponentially escalating effects of climate change, we are in for challenges of historic magnitude.

Bear in mind that the caveats in the IPCC reports that projections for sea level rise between 20 cms and 40 cms for this century are subject to limitations of current computer models regarding the dynamic changes in polar ice melting that have been observed in recent years. Recent reports (see "news" below) indicate that the exception may be the rule. There is a growing body of evidence that humanity's "drift towards catastrophe" is speeding up.

How accurate have prior IPCC assessments been? RealClimate.org has answered as follows: "How good have previous IPCC reports been at projecting the future? Actually, over the last 16 years (since the first report in 1990), they've been remarkably good for CO2 changes, temperature changes but actually under-predicted sea level changes. Given that the frequent responses from ice researchers during the last three years prior to this, keep echoing "the melting observed was much greater than last year", we may be at or beyond a critical threshold with the cryosphere. The reports from the Arctic region at the end of this past summer have scientists so alarmed that they wonder if there will be enough ice left for them to study by the end of this decade.

Subsequent IPCC releases on details of the Fourth Assessment Report are equally alarming. The potential of negatively impacting regions and nations least able to cope is a matter for global security as well as great moral concern. The conclusions of the 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change are equally sobering. It forecasts the need to spend 20 percent of global GDP if the Earth's inhabitants don't quickly end the now discredited practice of "business as usual". The good news here is that Stern calculates that we could solve the problems for between two and five percent of global GDP, a bargain at twice the price.
July 16, 2007 headlines proclaimed: UN warns high food prices mean it cannot afford to fight famine - Purchasing costs up 50% in past five years/Alert set to reignite debate over biofuels. The web of inputs and responses to peak oil and global climate change are already beginning to unravel.

WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT THIS
Some of us may want to reconsider the words of the old axiom, "we can choose to continue to be part of the problem or we can choose to become a part of the solution". To do nothing is a choice. We are confronted by a daunting task. There has ben an elephant in America's living room and we've been ignoring it. It is time to notice and to begin to "eat that elephant" in order to remove it. It won't leave of it's own accord. It is a task for all humans, and we do it one bite at a time.

Others, many of whom identify with and/or support the sustainability crowd, will need to stop "bargaining" over the situation and move to the fifth stage of response: Acceptance. We need this talented and growing community of activists to create examples of successful adaptation to the effects global climate change and peak oil.

Those of us who are actively involved in creating solutions; relocalizing, educating, shoring up our own energy and sustainability practices, will be well served by gearing up for a significant shift in public perception and receptivity to our ideas and efforts.

THE (so called) GREAT DEBATE ON WARMING - AND THE ANTIDOTE

There is virtually no independent peer-reviewed science by climate scientists on global warming that contradict the IPCC's unanimous conclusions. What controversy that exists is generally localized in the United States. This argument is rare to non-existent outside the US.

On December 3, 2007, at the Bali Climate Talks, Australia agreed to sign The Protocol isolating the U.S. as the lone holdout in the developed world.

Most of the remaining controversy is either blatantly political, financed by powerful interests (or handmaidens of those interests) whose profits are threatened by the data, or addressed and acounted for in the IPPC reports.
The attempts to sow doubt or refute the overwhelming body of evidence that exists is nearly identical to the long campaign to discredit the science on the link between smoking and cancer. As was often said to those disbelievers, ignore the evidence at your own peril. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of the campaign against global warming hurts all of us to the degree that it prevents YOU from acting.

THERE IS ANOTHER WAY:

Since at least half of the fossil fuel energy is wasted we can can spend the next years eliminating that waste in the name of fiscal responsibility. Eliminating half the waste will eliminate half of the CO2, many other greenhouse gasses, and the associated toxins. It will also save at least half of the money spent to buy that energy. By the time that process of eliminating waste is complete the evidence will be so clear that no-one will ignore it.

If you are motivated to become a part of the solution you can take a first step by eliminating ALL of the outmoded incandescent light bulbs in your homes and businesses. Why wait until the recent congressional energy bill mandates their abolition by______? If everybody in the US replaced just one of their bulbs we could shut down one large, polluting, coal-fired power-plant. I found thirty two in my house and when I replaced them my electricity bill went down.

According to the preeminent Rocky Mountain Institute, "Residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal lighting uses about 22 percent of all the electricity generated in the United States, and accounts for thirty-nine million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. RMI estimates that the technology already exists to cost-effectively save 50–90 percent of the power now consumed by lights in the United States. That would save $30 billion a year—enough electricity to retire 70 to 120 large power plants—and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by twenty to thirty-five million tons per year."

How's that for starters? There is a lot more that you can do without reading another section of this. If your refrigerator is over ten years old you can replace it with an Energy Star unit that is twice as efficient. On duty 24 hours every day of the year, your refrigerator is one of the biggest electricity user of all the household appliances.

The non-central air conditioner would be another likely target for replacement. In fact, every new appliance that you buy could be an Energy-Star certified unit at the top of those ratings.

Sealing air leaks between the inside and the outside of your home is another important target, especially when your climate is warm or cool. Air leaks can cut the efficiency of your heating and cooling system by 30% or more and make your home uncomfortable and drafty.

After sealing the leaks you can improve on the structure's insulation. The insulation that was recommended a decade ago is now regarded as woefully inadequate by today's standards. After all, we need a heater or air-conditioner only to replace that which is lost through air leaks and conduction through inadequately insulated walls, ceilings, windows and doors. Eliminate those inefficiencies and you can actually downsize or eliminate the heating and cooling systems.

Another possible improvement would be in getting a professional, certified, energy auditor to examine your home or business. The cost of auditing a home is around $400 and can save you more than ten times what you pay for it. The auditor can also determine the most cost effective options that your unique situation requires. You can find these at www.natresnet.org/directory/raters.aspx. This is a science-based computer driven program that is the most accurate and affordable way to do this.

BUILDING LIFEBOATS

It has been reported that as the Titanic was sinking there were people who held up brochures of the great ship pointing to the words "unsinkable" that were used to describe it. The begged their friends to come back on board. Those same people went down with the ship. Many of the lifeboats were launched half-empty.

Many of the doomed perished because of their faith in theory and the myth. Americans are known to be like that. We prefer our theories over empiricle experience. Are those of us living today cured of that failing?
The story of the Titanic is an apt metaphor for Spaceship Earth. The owners so believed the myth that they failed to equip Titanic with enough lifeboats for everyone even if they decided to use them.

These are the lifeboats we need to build. They will serve us well as the cost of petroleum spirals upward over the coming years. These are the lifeboats that will keep us afloat and safe while the less prudent sink, in increasing numbers, in the seas of debt.

The "lifeboats" we need to build are for our our children, and our grandchildren. We can most easily teach this by example. We are doing this for our communities and for the survival of humanity. If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses today the effects will increase and persist for a century or more. So it appears as if nothing short of an all out effort is likely to succeed. We, who have enjoyed the dubious luxury of the fruits of cheap oil, owe this effort to our children and the yet-born. Are you ready?

There is a simple "first step" that can be taken today. You don't even need to finish reading this to do it. We must eliminate every incandescent light bulb that we can. It won't be a big bite but it's easy and doable. California is "mulling" a ban on them. Europe plans to tax them.
We don't have to wait for that. If we all do this dozens of our oldest, coal fired power plants become unnecessary. You'll still have plenty of light. To get that to happen we all must act. Just do it.

IN THE MEANTIME....
In February of 2007, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell announced an $850 million "energy independence strategy" to cut greenhouse gasses and save consumer's $10 billion in ten years. On December 14th, the Pennsylvania Senate approved a $250 million version that fell far short of what was needed to move Pennsylvania into the ranks of states leading in the production of renewable energy. Rhode Island, with 9% of PA's population spends far more than that.
Missing from that proposal is a plan to help low income families, most vulnerable to skyrocketing energy costs, afford the added costs of energy efficient technology. We propose that $150 million be added to the original plan for those who can't afford to buy the technology they need to cut their energy bills. A round, billion dollars would have been more appropriate given today's new realities. Never before has the expression, "we are all one" been so meaningful and true.

The only hope for resurrecting this plan, or elevate the House version, is for those of us who care let our desires be known to our political representatives. It is keenly important that we become actively engaged in the political process. Democracy is not a spectator sport.

Those of us who live in developing countries will do well to leapfrog over the blunders of the industrialized west. You can choose to go straight to "go" (that's a Monopoly game term) and build energy efficiency, Factor Ten engineering, and biomimicry into all of your works. Of course, there well may be a responsibility lying in wait for those of us who've long enjoyed the fruits of energy so cheap we can (and do) waste it. We could help developing nations quickly achieve energy efficiency by more freely sharing our technology and experience. The waste and pollution all stays on this same planet that's shared by all. Those of us riding in the first-class section cannot long ignore the disaster that's more rapidly unfolding in the economy zone on this ship.

I apologize to those of us who are dependent on organizations like the United Nations for survival. I pray that we can find a way to increase our financial support until we can provide the financial and technical resources to help you learn to fish these troubled waters.

I am beginning to envy those of us who are traditionally able to survive, and whose people have survived for ages, in harmony with the land and seas. You have much to teach us. I pray that we have the capacity to learn. I also pray that we don't further blow, parch, flood, or melt your ecosystems so that you can continue to thrive and be examples of the values of simple living. There is a growing trend toward "voluntary simplicity" among those of us living in the first-class section. This small, socially conscious and responsible segment of our culture is forgoing conspicuous consumption, keeping up with the Jones', and ignoring the 3000 or so advertisements urging us to consume our way to the grave.

THE STORY OF STUFF

On December 4th, a wonderful new video on the link between consumerism and environmental degradation and resource depletion was launched by Annie Leonard, Coordinator of the Funders Workgroup for Sustainable Production and Consumption. It is called The Story of Stuff and you can see it and download it free at www.storyofstuff.com. I urge you to break away right now and spend delightful twenty minutes watching it. It's very funny, light, and RIGHT ON! Annie's giving it away so you can share it with as many people as you'd like. It could help you put this holiday season in a clearer perspective.

GROWING A USEFUL "LIFEBOAT" ACADEMY:

As we continue to develop and "fit out' the Earth Charter Lifeboat Academy of PA we'll proceed with setting up our school and online resources. William Marston AIA LEED PA is Dean of our Academy. Our primary area of influence and operation is the Delaware Valley. Our name reflects a deep connection to the United Nation's Earth Charter Initiative (www.earthchartercitizens.org). Their local Energy and Climate Working Group supplied key personel for this venture. We expect that the synergy and symbiosis of these two proven organizations, along with the others, will prove to be valuable and interesting. We hope they will be as educational and useful to you as they are to us.

 

The Energy Coordinating Agency is a private, non-profit corporation dedicated to ensuring that low and moderate income people have access to safe, affordable and reliable sources of energy and water. ECA works to develop a sustainable energy future for the region through energy conservation and renewable energy. ECA is a leading organization promoting sustainable living in Philadelphia especially among low-income households. Over the years they have been generous with their help to this "outpost", the Earth Charter Energy & Climate Working Group (our earlier incarnation) and Warminster Township's, now disbanded, groundbreaking Energy Advisory Committee (EnAC).

Their "for-profit" division, Smart Energy Solutions (SES) is a leading regional agency for energy efficient advice, weatherization, solar technology, conservation, and installations. Give them a call at 215.988.0929 when you want to take your next step in becoming a part of the solution.
Other important resources can be found at the Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org). For those of us involved in advisory or policy making, their "Community Energy Workbook" is a valuable tool, along with their improved, online "Community Energy Finder".

The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (www.acee.org) is another essential resource. They publish and frequently update a reasonably priced "Consumer Guide to Home Energy Savings" that is a must for all of us who don't live on sailboats. remote retreats that are off the grid, or cardboard boxes. Those of us who aren't yet living in a box will do well to follow the AC triple E's advice on energy efficiency. "There but for the grace of God go we". Mortgage foreclosures are up by 50% in many places, and rising.

DELAWARE VALLEY DEMOGRAPHICS:

The Delaware Valley, also known as the Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Combined Statistical Area, is named for the Delaware River which flows through the region. The Delaware River is on the Atlantic coast of the United States. The river meets tide-water at Trenton, New Jersey. Its total length, from the head of the longest branch to the capes, is 410 miles (660 km), and above the head of the bay its length is 360 miles (579 km). The mean freshwater discharge of the Delaware River into the estuary is 11,550 cubic feet (330 m³) per second.

The Delaware Valley is composed of several counties in Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and contains a population of 5,951,797 (as of the 2005 Census Bureau estimate).

Philadelphia, being the region's major commercial, cultural, and industrial center, maintains a rather large sphere of influence that affects those counties that immediately surround it. The majority of the region's populace reside in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The Greater Philadelphia Area is also one of the wealthiest regions in the United States, due to many people with high-end jobs working in Philadelphia. (More complete demographics is located further below.)

This site will continue to evolve. We will change according to our abilities and your input. We will continue to develop an educational center for sustainability, survival, and energy cost reduction during the time of Peak Oil and global climate change.

Our first major project, already underway, is a "how to" video for making existing homes more sustainable, in cooperation with Pierre Terre Productions (www.pierreterre.com). Our resident engineer, Andy Wright, is still working on the new primary web site.We will continue to provide public educational programs throughout the region and consult to numerous local organizations and individuals.

We believe that NOW is the time to prepare for the twin crises of peak oil and global warming. When the effects become more obvious, the choices for remediation will be fewer and the costs greater.
My 1,300 square foot suburban home has become a demonstration project for how to reduce energy costs and our carbon footprint. Heating and hot water costs for the winter of 2006-2007 were under $450. We've just completed a unique heat zone system. We will also soon install demand hot water and extend the successful INSIDE insulation project that we experimented with in 2005.

We are working in cooperation with a number of local, regional and national organizations. The Alliance for a Sustainable Future (www.asustainablefuture.org) the parent organization for the Earth Charter Citizens (www.earthchartercitizens.org), the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (www.aceee.org), the Chesapeake Climate Action Network (www.chesapeakeclimate.org), the Climate Crisis Coalition (www.climatecrisiscoalition.org), the (Elmwood) Center for Ecoliteracy (www.ecoliteracy.org), Delaware Valley Sustainability (dvs@actionpa.org.org), Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org), The Gnossis Project (www.geniusloci.org), Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org), the Sustainable Business Network of Greater Philly (www.sbnphiladelphia.org), the Delaware Valley Green Building Council (www.dvgbc.org), The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (www.dvrpc.org), the SSAP and the Bucks County Environmental Stewardship Committee (who don't yet have websites) and others. Please visit their websites because each one has valuable information for you.

Members of the ECLA PA are actively consulting for the Freedom's Way project of the Ivyland Foundation, based in Ivyland, PA. We are working to "green" two projects that involve two new museums linked by an existing tourist railroad to New Hope PA and the SEPTA regional rail terminus of the R-1 and R-2 rail lines. This is an exciting project that is stretching our capacity and abilities. Our goal is six net-zero buildings, and an improved rail link from central Philadelphia to the upper reaches of Central Bucks County. We're partnering with the Drexel University Smart House project (www.drexelsmarthouse.com). Our first structure is an 1100 square foot 1903 Victorian house with almost no insulation.

THE ECLA of PA is always looking for new members and the fresh ideas they bring. If you are interested in joining us, or would like to post information, a comment or an event, please contact us. To join, simply scroll to top of this page, click the green box (second from left) that says "groups" and click on the next-to-last choice: "How to Join...". Be sure to include your full name and biographic information. I'd also like to know where you generally reside.

If you represent an organization that would like to collaborate with us, send a message to: soundsynergy@comcast.net.

We understand that, in the web of life, the interconnections are the keys to success.