Nine Percent
The Financial Times has leaked the results of the International Energy Agency's long-awaited study of the depletion profiles of the world's 400 largest oilfields, indicating that, "Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent."
This is a stunning figure.
Considering regular crude oil only, this means that 6.825 million barrels a day of new production capacity must come on line each year just to keep up with the aggregate natural decline rate in existing oilfields. That's a new Saudi Arabia every 18 months.
The Financial Times story goes on:
The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand. The effort will become even more acute as [oil] prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.
This is putting it mildly. Investment capital is being vaporized almost daily in a global deflationary bonfire of unprecedented ferocity. Oil production projects are being mothballed left and right.
Inter alia, the IEA takes the requisite swat at "peak oil theorists," who, the agency somehow still believes, are saying that the world is "running out of oil." Of course that's NOT what peak oil theorists say, but a correct summation of their position would have to be followed with a statement to the effect that, "Our research supports their position," which would be just too embarrassing.
Sadly, the IEA feels it must pull its punch even further. With adequate investment in new small oilfields and unconventional sources like tarsands, it insists, the world can still achieve higher levels of production. In other words, if the $12 trillion that vanished from the world stock markets last week were invested in new tarsands projects, then theoretically a few more years of total oil production growth could be eked out (not growth in net energy production, mind you, but in the gross—and I do mean gross—production of exotic, very expensive stuff that it's physically possible to run your car on, assuming you could afford to do so).
Of course, any realistic assessment either of the likelihood of that level of investment appearing, or of the ability of new projects to really produce a sufficient rate of flow regardless of the size of the cash infusion, would end merely in a hearty belly-laugh.
Evidently peeved about being scooped on its planned November 12 press conference roll-out of the study, the IEA has disavowed the Financial Times story. But if nine percent is even close to being the final figure, then it's absolutely clear: July 2008 was the all-time peak in world oil production. Don't expect anyone at the IEA to officially admit that fact until 2025 or so. But among those who pay attention to the evidence and the terms of the debate, further ink need not be spilled in speculation.
Peak oil is history.
image source: The Sietch Blog
It is a beautiful day here in Otaki, New Zealand and the spring growth is very exciting. After hours in the garden I came in to read this scary information and it is hard to take it in. Yes we have a meeting of the core group of our Transition Towns group tonight and yes we have more plans for actions. But nine percent! How will the new US president cope? We have an election here on Nov 8th as well and of course peak oil isn't on the agenda. People at bridge last night didn't talk about peak oil or the financial tsunami. Every now and then one gets overwhelmed with the horrible reality of peak oil and this time it has hit me again. HARD. I am 70 and I don't think I have the physical capacity to double my efforts so I will send this url to my children and loved ones this time.
Folks familiar with projections on theoildrum will know that 2% declines mean reasonably painful adaptation, 5% declines spell very painful adjustments, while 10% declines mean societal breakdown on the larger levels.
The fix is in. We need to get our contingency plans in place. Ill bring this info to my Transition Town group in Queensland, Australia. I am lucky I am young and healthy and convinced my parents to flee suburbia two years ago so we have two acres of debt free land. Time to put the last half acre under crops asap. Clearing weeds from the soil and improving fertility takes a couple of years. Prepare to look after yourself people! Time is running out...
It is time to blitz the airwaves with the direst of warnings in the light of the I.E.A.'s findings, though the official news has yet to be handed down.
Those of us who have curtailed our own personal efforts to warn the unenlightened, due to distractions such as the related world financial meltdown or surrender in the face of widespread apathy, need to fire up the debate again and thrust this down the world's collective throat! No matter how it is done attention must be drawn to the greatest threat to civilisation since the dawn of civilisation.
I'm not suggesting that some heinous terrorist act be used to garner attention, but, bless the one who would go that far. Time is running short and pussy-footing around about the single most important issue in all of history is not what is necessary right now. Those of us who haven't been distracted or given up need to redouble our efforts to bring this EMERGENCY to everyone's IMMEDIATE ATTENTION!!!
Oh come on folks! At a 9.1% decline rate we're well past the worst case scenario delineated in the Hirsch Report. Society as we know it is over. Deal with it. Co-dependent behaviors like attempting to "thrust this down the world's collective throat" won't do a bit of good. The obviousness to the general public of the coming Collapse may not happen for a for months or a few years but the time for warning them is long past. The company that just left the plane without parachutes cannot benefit from the warning that they may need them before they go "Splat". All the preaching we do now is for our own benefit... to make us feel good... like we've tried right up to the bitter end. This takes a lot of personal energy that may be better spent helping a select few in our lives like family and other loved ones. I believe that it's time to let it go. We've done all that we can do collectively. The only thing left now is for individuals to stay awake, calm and grounded.
I agree that the time to warn the world is past. I am doing the best I can to warn my community and our turn outs are pittifully small. I warn my family and a few friends and quietly stock up on the things that will be scarce in the future. We are doing our best to get a community garden going. I am saving seeds and doing my best to plant all heirloom seeds. I give seeds away. I also ask people to save up used wax or broken candles, I'll even take used canning wax to make more candles, firestarters and buddy burners. For the long term it looks like the people who are already poor or on the lower rungs of society will not be as hurt as the ones who are rich and don't have any survival skills. I truely believe that this our survival that is on the line. Good luck.
Michael J. Kaer, author of "What Money Can't Buy"
We need to educate the public ASAP. We need to get the news media to focus on DEPLETION instead of "the price of oil". I think we need to tell people that their days of driving everywhere are going to be over fast, and that there may be little growth in the economy from now on (and maybe even negative growth to be the norm) and to save for retirement in CASH instead of stocks. We should put pressure on congress to buy up the foreclosed homes, bulldoze them, and plant community gardens on them to at least offset a shortness in agriculture if the trucks go down. Next, we should implement a tax of $5.00 per gallon on gas to preserve what is left and reduce excess driving. Additionally, we should start a "Manhattan squared" project for new energy sources that scale with good EROEI and challenge each and every chemical company, oil company, university, researcher, to take part in this.
The economic down spiral during the last three months evidently had slowed the growth worldwide and thus energy consumption by 10-30% (anyone guess taking into consideration that the real production of industry, agriculture and transportation constitute the least percentage of world total GDP, the rest is in assets of financial markets, swaps and derivatives and currency speculations). Deflation of everything including Commodities prices plunged to at least 2003-2005 price levels and oil is more than 50% its all time peak price. If we listen to economists predictions, we probably still didn't reach the trough of the economic spiral or in best guesstimates it would last till the fall of 2009 until the business cycle reverse course and the new inflationary path kick off again. The decline in world oil output would be compensated and probably be overcome by the slow economic growth and thus, it might take to at least end of 2010-2012 until shortages of oil market appear again even if the decline of world oil output capacity is 9%.
Don't worry - read happy. For all those who don't like scary stories the IEA didn't forget to supply its report with a happy end version:
AFP writes:
There is enough oil in the world to feed the expected rise in production beyond 2030. "The world is not running short of oil or gas just yet," the IEA reassured.
Estimates of remaining proven reserves of oil and natural gas "range from about 1.2 to 1.3 trillion barrels" and had almost doubled since 1980. "This is enough to supply the world for over 40 years at current rates of consumption."
(http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ghvldPpvR016GPqhL8ijic1wZ_-A)
Saint - Thanks for your wisdom, lets hope the economy slows enough to match the decline in oil production. This would be the free-market approach to heinbergs oil depletion protocol. The hope is that when industry starts back up (or trys to), they choose cradle to cradle and other types of sustianable design in their products and we move away from the disposable lifestyle.
For those who still wish to wake people up, telling them about oil production doesn't put it into context. Try showing them "the story of stuff" or "the end of suburbia". Organize neighborhood / town film showings. Pass out fliers, get on the radio, call and email friends about the event. make it fun. make it a pot luck. and when it comes to solutions, I suggest everyone check out permaculture. If its possible to turn the desert into a food forest like geoff lawton, we can save ourselves.
I have those videos linked on my blog - infopatriots.org
9.1 per cent of output decline is a huge figure isnt it.. something to worry about.
And yes I think the public deserves to know all this and as said by Obama transparency is key to democracy. We need to be transparent and open on what needs to be done and what is been done.
The carbon bonus is over. It is quite amazing knowing the known oil reserves to see people continuing to waste it by driving their cars wastefully. Human societies do not generate smooth transitions, and real change happen brutally. This is what will happen with the oil crisis, unless another source is found quickly. I doubt it as they said exactly the same thing in the 70's, and nothing has changed. So at some point real local oil shortage will occur, price will go to the roof; and the situation will never improve from there. I do not drive a car myself. Do you have to have a car?
Dear Dr. Heinberg,
I saw your conference in Montpelier, televised last month at 3:00AM till 5:00 AM. Sleepy as I was (as I had to get up at 6:00 AM to catch a 7:00AM flight out of Burlington), I watched intently with my mouth wide open at all the salient points you made which defined the very essence why I moved to Vermont from Florida to start National Industries for Clean Energy Corp. d/b/a "NICE Corporation," (NICE)
NICE is building MSW recycling plants that divert 90% of the waste stream from being land filled. Though 10% does get buried in landfills, the balance is recycled as the Glass, Metals (ferrous & non ferrous), plastics (PET & HDPE), and the cardboard as well as the clean white paper is pulled out and sold to their best markets. What is then left is all the "ORGANICS." and some small particles of "All the Above" with some leather, rubber, sand, rocks, etc., which then gets sorted (99%) in the last Classifier and Tramp removal process. The Organics such as wet paper, food stuff, lawn debris, cardboard, wax paper, and some cellulose material such as thin plastic bags, and food wrapping paper, etc., we then shred into fine particles and put through a drying process @ 400* which are then extruded into a Highbred RDF Pellet made mostly (98%) of paper and other organic matter that burns at 8K Btu's/lb. with almost zero (.0178%) sulfur. The drying process is powered by the use of our own RDF Pellets. This system is a proven technology, and is now in operation in Cherokee, Iowa.
Basically, we are after the 100's of zillions of BTU's that are buried in landfills ea. yr by diverting 90% of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)from having to be land-filled, while recovering the 75% of all MSW that is recyclable. We then evaporate the 15% of moisture, and turn the remainiong 50% of the MSW (250M tons per yr that is being buried in landfills) organic matter and convert it into this clean alternative energy by manufacturing this "Refined" RDF Pellet as a Renewable Energy source.
I have asked Dr. Chamberlain, who is a Chemist and a Member of our Board of Directors, to contact you and try to establish an accord that we may support each other’s efforts to find cost effective and obvious ways that we can generate the energy necessary to sustain the American way of life by properly managing our resources. I think you both will find each other knowledgeable and I know that we at NICE would welcome any and all help, thought, ideas, knowledge and constructive criticism, as we go forward in our task to become the premier provider of Renewable Energy to reduce the use of fossil fuels and help to encourage and protect the environment in order to preserve a quality of life that we can all feel proud to hand over to our grandchildren.
Thank you for your efforts and all you have done to bring awareness of the dangers we humans face as a race due to our improper managers of our planet, and for indulging my long winded introduction of myself, NICE, as well as Dr. Chamberlain, who should be contacting you shortly.
Thank you again for your time and dedication to your cause.
Respectfully yours, Tony Leavitt, Co-Founder, NICE Corporation
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