Peak Oil, Power & Potatoes: Balancing Old & New, Big & Small As Money & Energy Decline
The power of concentrated money - capital as it is often called - is clearly enormous. Some things have to be done with collected resources if you want civilisation to continue, especially things to do with transport. But then there is the fact that if someone is doing it (using concentrated resources) and you are not, you will most likely be pushed out of the game, which is what the Luddites were protesting against. They have been much maligned, but they were not against technology or the future per se, they were against losing their jobs and a modest way of life that was probably a lot more sustainable than the Industrial Revolution which pushed them out. Capital, be it wielded by state socialism or more likely capitalists, is hostile to certain kinds of diversity, both human and bio.
That in itself is enough of a conundrum, but the mindset - for example of those following Warren Buffett - of only trying to get concentrated resources may well be toxic, since it takes us away from the daily business of provisioning ourselves reliably and resiliently. There are a number of ways of concentrating capital with minimal effort and the stock markets and the Internet have greatly facilitated the process - for some. Back in ancient history (say 2001), day traders used to sit at their terminals punting stocks back and forth like latterday jitterbugs, hoping to emulate their heroes - Buffett or Gordon Gekko in Wall Street (made in the pre-cambrian era - 1987).
During the heyday of the dot com era (somewhat shorter by the way, than, say, the Jurassic or Triassic eras of dinosaur fame and when much of our oil was being generated), in the dusky glens of Silicon Valley, and even on the rainy streets of London, there was much febrile fidgeting amongst nerds and geeks about how to become the next eBay or Google, companies able to explode into billion-dollar giants in a matter of minutes apparently.
People had noticed that unlike software, there is no exponential 'breakout potential' in mundane hardware like kale or potatoes. Potatoes don't flow and whilst they do grow, they can't multiply exponentially with little effort - they always need concomitant nutrients, old-fashioned things like water, nitrogen, phosphorous and sunlight. Exponential growth just means that the rate of growth keeps on increasing in a way that is proportional to the current value, thus the bigger the growing entity the more it will tend to grow bigger.
Exponential growth is a very infectious mindset but I worry that, apart from the fact that in the real world exponential growth eventually meets earthly limits (eg now), this way of thinking eats away at our capacity and will to provide for ourselves. It does this especially in a way that respects carrying capacity - the ability of the planet to support a particular population of creatures or whole ecosystems.
The rise of Google or even Microsoft, despite appearances to the contrary, is the opposite of growing or developing anything in the old fashioned way, be it potatoes or pottery. Software companies, and especially Internet software companies, can expand to fill almost 100% of a monetised space with 'linear' or even less effort. They are very often very clever, and their products may or may not be superbly made and very useful and just about everyone in the industrialized world uses software directly or indirectly every day, whether they know it or not. Just for the record, even though I am not running for President of the United States, I should mention that I was a software engineer in 2001. Though I failed to become a multi-billionaire, I maintain great respect for software developers.
To conclude: we are stuck with some difficult and surprising contradictions. Like it or lump it we need concentrated resources - such as lots of money - to do useful things, even though it is quite clear that we so often use such resources for bad things, such as wars and other forms of violence. At the same time, because we are reaching the limits to growth, have exceeded Earthly carrying capacity, and are tipping over peak oil into petroleum decline, we also now need rather urgently to rebuild a system of distributed generation of food, fuel and other vital needs. So we need some big and a lot small, and currently the big gets in the way of the small.
One of the ways this happens is that our systems of big economy, big education and exaggerated division of labour - virtually our whole culture in fact - are fairly hostile to notions of anything which is not, well, big! How can we engender the culture and teaching and ethos that a rebirth of the local (relocalization) will require, especially when that new 'local' will still need to be part of the regional, the nation and the international?
It is going to be tough to promote a kind of step-by-step, traditional zeitgeist in a world where it is also clear that there are great advantages in the tempting tools of exponential growth and where might is nearly always 'right' and where right means winning at all costs. However, there may be a silver lining: there are signs that at last even free market dominated governments (such as the US & UK) are reacting to the chaos that is reigning (raining?) in the financial world by starting to overtly rein in the obesity of giant financial corporations and say that they are too large.
If this were to mean that untrammelled 'big' was no longer the automatic convention, then that could both give some light and oxygen to carefully thought through 'small' and see the development of the right kind of larger organisms at the regional level and above, which will help both relocalization and build larger sustainable structures and institutions where the large helps the small - and vice versa.












A global and networked economy requires tight coupling of enterprises, consumers, and the resource and capital flows that they generate. Tight coupling of resource flows, capital, and energy supports a large global population. If energy use declines past some threshold (defined by some boundary measure of efficiency of energy utilization), coupling of resource and capital (and probably energy) flows across geographic distances will decline as well. Maybe a high value of energy utilization per unit of distance serves as a partial measure of the capital flow coupling between communities. Current and higher levels of capital flow (not limited to information flow) coupling support political/cultural tolerance that sustains regional peace and prosperity (visible here in North America, Europe, India, Australia, and China). Movement toward looser coupling of capital and resource flows does not imply creation of regenerative systems of capital production and resource utilization, much less improvement in political/cultural tolerance between communities. Tight coupling of capital and resource flows over large geographic areas, even the whole globe, has the potential of improving tolerance and creating regenerative capital production, in the sense that both potentials must be fulfilled in order for the system to be resilient.
While a networked economy provides strong incentives for capital flows (including information flow) spanning large geographic distances, a splintered economy offers few incentives other than human kindness. Human kindness is difficult to act on in such circumstances of weak or null capital flow (stored energy, money, information, people, etc).
Putting aside the possibility of resource wars and refugees, one impact of loosening coupling could be an uncontrolled reduction in population (by untimely death rather than old age), simply because without flexible and redundant flows of resources and capital to some geographic areas, those areas will not sustain their current populations in varying circumstances of waste production and resource availability.
One solution to the end of oil, and the overconsumption of resources, maybe the only solution that will sustain the global population, is a sharp increase in energy production to support tighter coupling of global capital flows than our current global economy allows. That said, I don't mind conserving energy, so long as that conservation comes through increased efficiency of energy use, rather than a decline in my personal capital outflows. Past some point of declining energy consumption, collective action on my example would result in a disaster. Defining that point is personally important, if my intention is to contribute to the collective good.
Well, reducing my energy consumption leaves more energy for the people who support the current complexity of coupling of capital across the globe. Those people are providing me a public good that I can treat like a savings account for whenever they decide to pay themselves off with it. If I could, I would sell them lots of tolerance, but it's a byproduct of their capital production, so I'm not sure that they need any.
The exponential function is not really applicable to any finite system, the logistic curve is more relevant. We certainly need large-scale change, which can come about with the "exponential" (logistic) spread of ideas and tools, so an "infectious mindset" can be good. What you seem to be really concerned about is "concentration" and hierarchy of power, which creates physical and social distance between actions and results, reduces transparency, accountability and democratic control, and leaves major decisions with a few unreliable or self-dealing individuals. This is the problem, not scale or specialization themselves.
Capitalism is destroying the planet, but it is futile to try and abolish it. The problem is that its current goal is just short-term profits. With ecological accounting and formally valuing social goods and future happiness, we can make it work for the planet instead of against it. I believe that capitalism can be made friendly to diversity and sustainability.
With regards to capital flows and globalization, it is worth remembering that Adam Smith's theory that free trade benefits everyone is based on Ricardo's principle of "comparative advantage", which requires preventing capital crossing borders. Instead the current neoliberal ideology promotes capital movement, creating "absolute advantage" - which, put simply, means the richest get richer still while poor countries and economic groups get even poorer.
Most large-scale resource flows between countries, such as cash crops or consumer goods, reflect the current unequal buying and geopolitical powers of nations and do not substantially create global prosperity. A fairer global economic system with more equal living standards (one possible outcome of the transition we are facing) would probably have less national specialization and physical trade, but more communication and cultural understanding.
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