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Hughes Shale Reality Check in Natural Gas Intel

February 9, 2018

Post Carbon Fellow David Hughes’ new report Shale Reality Check casts doubt on the EIA’s latest projections as reported in Natural Gas Intel.

From the article:

In addition to the reference case, AEO2018 includes energy projections through 2050 under high and low oil price cases, high and low oil and gas resource and technology cases, high and low economic growth cases, and cases assuming that the Clean Power Plan (CPP) is implemented. The Environmental Protection Agency has indicated that it plans to completely repeal the CPP by October.

Even before it was released, EIA’s shale gas and tight oil projections were being questioned by some environmental groups.

“There is no doubt that the U.S. can produce substantial amounts of shale gas and tight oil over the short- and medium-term,” said J. David Hughes, who authored a report for the Post Carbon Institute that was issued Monday. “Unrealistic long-term forecasts, however, are a disservice to planning a viable long-term energy strategy. The very high to extremely optimistic EIA projections impart an unjustified level of comfort for long-term energy sustainability.”