Home > Publications > Energy Reality

Shale Bubble report series

The fifteen-report “Shale Bubble” report series by J. David Hughes critically assessed the viability of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) tight oil and shale gas forecasts in its Annual Energy Outlook reports, from 2015 to 2021.

Shale Reality Check 2021

Fracking has boosted U.S. oil and gas production—but how long can it deliver? This assessment of U.S. government forecasts for tight oil and shale gas production finds them extremely optimistic and unlikely to be realized.

Shale Reality Check 2019

Shale gas and tight oil have provided a new lease on life for U.S. oil and gas production. But how sustainable is shale production in the long term given optimistic forecasts of robust production through 2050 and beyond? In this report, earth scientist J. David Hughes assesses the viability of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) shale forecasts in its Annual Energy Outlook 2019, which are widely used by policymakers, industry, and investors to make long-term plans. His detailed analysis finds that the EIA’s forecasts of tight oil and shale gas production through 2050 are extremely optimistic, and highly unlikely to be realized.

Oil, Power, and War: A Dark History

Award-winning journalist Matthieu Auzanneau deftly traces how oil became a national and then global addiction, outlines the enormous consequences of that addiction, sheds new light on major historical and contemporary figures, and raises new questions about the conventional history of oil. Foreword by Richard Heinberg.

Shale Reality Check (2018)

Shale gas and tight oil from low permeability reservoirs have provided a new lease on life for U.S. oil and gas production. The question is, how sustainable is shale production in the long term given optimistic forecasts of robust production through 2050 and beyond? Shale Reality Check: Drilling Into the U.S. Government’s Rosy Projections for Shale Gas & Tight Oil Production Through 2050 endeavors to answer that question by assessing the viability of the projections of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook 2017.

2016 Tight Oil Reality Check

2016 Tight Oil Reality Check explores how the EIA’s projections and assumptions regarding tight oil have changed over the last two years, and assesses the AEO2016 against both Drilling Deeper and up-to-date production data from key tight oil plays.